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MacroBusiness Monday, May 26, 2025 - 00:05 Source

MacroBusiness, for years, has blamed much of Australia’s productivity slump on ‘capital shallowing’, which occurs when the nation’s population grows faster than business, infrastructure, and housing investment. This situation leaves workers with less capital, resulting in less output per hour and a lower growth rate per capita. As a stylised example, assume that you run

The post Australia’s economy shallows out appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, May 25, 2025 - 16:41 Source

DXy is breaking down again. AUD looks ready to breakout. Lead boots plod higher. Gold loving DXY, oil nowhere. Metals also loving the DXY. Miners not worse. Junk nothing burger. Yields fell on the night but the trend is not your friend. Stocks are not enjoying the regime of the American lira. Yet the AUD

The post Australian dollar rockets upwards appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Sunday, May 25, 2025 - 14:45 Source
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Renew Economy Sunday, May 25, 2025 - 14:19 Source
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The Tally Room Sunday, May 25, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Today’s booth map covers two neighbouring seats in southern Sydney, both of which flipped from Liberal to Labor in 2025.

The seat of Banks covers south-western parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown coucnil area and a majority of the Georges River council area, on the northern side of the Georges River. The seat of Hughes covers parts of the Sutherland and Liverpool council areas on the southern side of the Georges River, but has recently added suburbs in the Campbelltown area to the west of that river. Those changes significantly cut the Liberal margin in the seat.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, May 25, 2025 - 10:01 Source

Home buyer demand increased recently following the federal election and expectations of an imminent interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As illustrated below, final auction clearance rates (current to 18 May) showed a marked rebound across Sydney, Melbourne, and the combined capital city markets. This weekend’s preliminary auction results from Cotality

The post Home buyers pounce after RBA rate cut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Sunday, May 25, 2025 - 09:27 Source

By Harry Ottley, Economist at CBA: The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85% as expected this week. The tone was more dovish than both we and the market had anticipated. We retain our call for two further interest rate cuts this year but expect the cuts to come marginally more quickly. Next

The post The economic week ahead appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 23, 2025 - 14:13 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 10:55 Source

Westpac with the note. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.2% in April from 0.5% in March. The above-trend growth pulse that emerged at the start of the year

The post Leading index steps into a bog appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 14:41 Source

As widely expected by financial markets and economists, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% to 3.85%. In coming to its decision, the statement noted that “inflation continues to moderate”, with “annual trimmed mean inflation (2.9%) was below 3% for the first time since 2021 and headline inflation

The post RBA cuts by 0.25%. Remains coy on forward guidance. appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Monday, May 19, 2025 - 22:50 Source

Neoliberal economics began when a group of economists (Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, Ludwig von Mises, Frank Knight) met at the Swiss resort of Mont Pèlerin to draft what they hoped would become the dominant economic model. Their model was inspired by the pro-market writings of classical economic liberals such as Adam Smith (1723-1790) and David Ricardo (1772-1823). While they said they were pushing back against the state totalitarianism of communism embodied by the increasing influence of the USSR, their neoliberalism morphed into market fundamentalism1.

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Renew Economy Monday, May 19, 2025 - 17:24 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, May 19, 2025 - 07:56 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 11:30 Source

More pain from The Market Ear. After the China/US trade talks JPM’s great derivatives team dives in: “The China-US trade talks in Geneva have been more positive than anticipated and have resulted in a normalization of the volatility spread between the S&P 500 and European indices. We recommend buying SPX short-dated calls, fully funded by selling

The post The pain trade turns agony appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 16, 2025 - 07:53 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 15:12 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 15:11 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 14:58 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 12:05 Source

Join us in this week’s podcast as Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, and special guest economist Cameron Murray unpack the downsides of superannuation as a pension supplement—and explore the broader social issues it creates. Can’t make it to the live series? Catch up on the content via Podcasts or our recorded Videos. Damien Klassen is Chief Investment

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Statistics New Zealand has released data showing that net overseas migration (NOM) decreased to 26,400 for the year ending March 2025, a decline from 100,400 in the year ending March 2024. “The fall in net migration in the March 2025 year was mainly due to fewer migrant arrivals, although departures also rose to a provisional

The post Young Kiwis are fleeing New Zealand appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 11:11 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for Q1 2025 showing that the value of new housing lending declined by 1.6% in Q1, taking the rate of annual growth down to 14.2%. This was the first quarterly decrease since Q1 23, driven by a fall in lending to owner occupiers (-2.6%/qtr) and

The post Australia’s housing upturn “losses momentum” appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Fast and furious RSI across equity indexes has gone from extremely oversold to now hitting very overbought levels. RSI levels from the top: SPX, NDX and SOX. Source: LSEG Workspace Panic buying These are huge numbers. Forced chasing at its best. Goldman’s prime data from yesterday: 1. Global equities, second largest net buying day in 5

The post Stocks rampage into the void appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 08:16 Source

I found this bit on ZDNet about a Harvard study on genAI use kind of interesting. Boiled down, it says generative AI in the workplace improves people’s work but erodes their motivation and engagement. There are numbers! Apparently. the psychological toll from a loss of agency and control over cognitively demanding tasks results in an 11% drop in intrinsic motivation and a 20% increase in boredom.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The latest data from the Department of Education shows that a record 1.1 million international students were enrolled in Australia at the end of 2024, nearly 250,000 higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic peak: The number of graduate visas on issue hit a record high of 222,200 in Q1 2025, more than double the 2019 pre-pandemic

The post International students flock to Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 14, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Via Roy Morgan. In April 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment increased 176,000 to 1,780,000 (up 1% to 11.2% of the workforce) with more people joining the workforce and overall employment dropping in April. The expansion in the workforce was the main driver of the increase in unemployment with 156,000 people joining the workforce lifting the number

The post Roy Morgan unemployment trends up appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 13, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is back as the child president spews his slop in a hard reverse. AUD has switched from safe haven to growth proxy, Lead boots to the moon! That is the ugliest double top on gold I can remember. Metals vote for growth over tariffs. Miners maybe. EM nears breakout. Grow my junk! Yield pause.

The post Australian dollar falls off a cliff appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 12, 2025 - 16:35 Source

    AUD/USD     EUR/USD     USD/JPY     GBP/USD     Gold     WTI     Brent     Australia 200     US S&P 500     UK 100     Japan 225       Easy Listening          

The post Macro Afternoon: 12 May 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 12, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Australian households have suffered one of the largest declines in real disposable incomes in the developed world. The Q4 2024 national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that real per capita household disposable income had declined by around 8% from its mid-2022 peak, the sharpest decline on record. The ABS released its

The post What’s behind the surge in cost of living? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 12, 2025 - 11:30 Source

This is amusing. AFR. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned that fixing Australia’s flatlining productivity will require a third term of government, as he ruled out accepting every proposal that will arise from a crisis review into the problem that he commissioned before the election. It will take Treasurer Chalmers an infinite number of terms to

The post Why Jim Chalmers will never fix producitivity appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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