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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Emperor Xi and his CCP cronies have discovered a new and exciting way of pretending that the Chinese economy is rebalancing to consumption: vouchers. The first of the vouchers was an extra day for the LNY holiday to boost travel. It worked! But they forget to give them a cocktail voucher for when they go

The post China’s got a voucher for that appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Gallup released a survey in January, conducted across 140 countries with responses from 14,000 people (including 1,000 in Australia), showing that Australians are fed up with unaffordable housing. Only 22% of Australians were satisfied with home availability in 2024, a record low. In contrast, 76% expressed unhappiness, a discontent rarely seen in high-income countries. Only

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Greater fools are driving the stock rally. The Market Ear. Cause for concern There are a number of “causes for concern” now when we look at positioning indicators. It has been retail investors that have done the majority of the buying over the last few days. Inflows into equity funds have been close to “manic-like”.

The post Greater fools drive the stock rally appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Australia has grown its population by around 8.5 million this century, driven by historically high net overseas migration, most of which is purportedly skilled. However, Australia’s skills shortages are supposedly worse than ever despite the surge in’ skilled’ migration. How could that be? Greg Jericho from The Guardian released research in October 2024 showing that

The post Australia’s army of unemployable migrants appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday released dwelling approvals data for the month of December, which recorded total approvals of 15,378 in trend terms. As illustrated in the next chart, approvals have rebounded recently, driven by units & apartments. Even so, the 15,378 monthly approvals were 23% below the 20,000 monthly run rate

The post Aussie home builders need interest rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 10:44 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 10:30 Source

In November 2022, I lambasted immigration minister Andrew Giles for headlining a private Victorian Labor Party fundraising dinner organised by controversial Labor figure Jasvinder Sidhu. It was alleged that Indian migration agents paid $1,000 to attend the dinner to “buy” access to Giles and raised concerns with him about visa and migration policy issues. “We

The post Political treachery is destroying Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 10:24 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 10:04 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Australia should look at the case of King Trump’s 25% Canada tariff and worry. The excuses for the tariff—drugs and illegal immigrants—are nonsense. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that Canada has allowed “millions and millions” of people to illegally enter the United States. However, with regard to Canada at least, U.S. Customs and Border

The post Will Australia get a Rudd tariff? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 09:30 Source

We are now just over a month out from the Western Australian state election. The writs will be issued tomorrow, and nominations close next week.

This seemed like the right time to unlock my state election guide for everyone to read. The guide has been an exclusive for members of the Tally Room who sign up via Patreon.

The guide features profiles of all 59 Legislative Assembly races and a profile of the new statewide at-large Legislative Council contest. Read the guide here.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 09:30 Source

A heroes parade is on for those who predicted the gas crisis. Rod Sims leads us off. Former head of the competition regulator Rod Sims says he has been warning the Victorian Labor government about gas shortages for a decade but was ignored, after wild storms left more than 45,000 homes and businesses in the

The post Reserve gas or Australia dies appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Risk markets took their deep breath yesterday morning in reaction to the Trumpian Trade War but overshot as usual, with some mild recoveries overnight including Wall Street. Currency markets flocked to the USD but have recovered at least half of their respective movements with the Mexican turnaround or stay helping ease the volatility, although the

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The Q4 2024 inflation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggested that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely begin cutting the official cash rate at its 18 February meeting. December’s retail sales data from the ABS challenges this view, however. While nominal retail sales in Australia fell by 0.1% in December.

The post Buoyant retail sales challenge rate cut narrative appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 06:52 Source

DXY was back but then not. AUD put in an impressive hammer candle bottom. I’m baffled by the reaction of auld lead boots. Oil down, gold up. Commods mixed. Miners meh. EM lol. Junk whacked. Yields hardly moved. An extinction-level asteroid could hurt stocks. Pretty wild pump and dumps on this. Lol, Mexican troops to

The post Australian dollar roars as trade war ends appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, February 4, 2025 - 00:05 Source

“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome”. This famous quote was coined by legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger in a 1995 Harvard speech. Munger’s quote encapsulates a fundamental truth about human behaviour and its impact on business and government. It also applies to Australia’s gargantuan National Disability Insurance

The post Bottomless NDIS ‘sinkhole’ disables economy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, February 3, 2025 - 20:44 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, February 3, 2025 - 20:07 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, February 3, 2025 - 17:00 Source

Mind the gap! The new trade war over the weekend, which is set to escalate further as the world pushes back at the Bully-in-Chief sent, well everything risk associated lower with Asian stock markets the first casualties. Currency markets all experienced wide 100-200 pip gaps on the open this morning as the USD soared against

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, February 3, 2025 - 15:25 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, February 3, 2025 - 15:10 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, February 3, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Deutsche with the note. First, we consider the announcements to be at the most hawkish end of the protectionist spectrum we could have envisaged. The speed of implementation (Tuesday 12:01am EST), the scope (all goods are covered, including small parcel goods previously exempted) and the breadth (approximately 44% of total US imports) are all aggressive. It

The post Tariff doomsday appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, February 3, 2025 - 14:00 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, February 3, 2025 - 13:35 Source

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MacroBusiness Monday, February 3, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The Market Ear with the latest update on equity internals. That was quick SPX approaching range highs soon. Monday’s intraday lows actually touched the 100 day… Refinitiv Vulnerable shorts 1. Post-Monday’s AI selloff, long positions have become cleaner as “risky” longs were sold. 2. Monday saw the highest net selling since September 2024, driven by

The post Will tariffs blow up stocks? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, February 3, 2025 - 13:28 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, February 3, 2025 - 13:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, February 3, 2025 - 13:00 Source

CoreLogic data shows that national rental affordability hit an all-time low at the end of 2024, with 33% of median household income spent on the national median rent. According to CoreLogic, this followed a 37% increase in asking rents over the past five years, whereas PropTrack reported a 47% increase in rents over the same

The post Sydney and Melbourne rents fall appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, February 3, 2025 - 12:50 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, February 3, 2025 - 12:30 Source

This is not a debate. It is propaganda from both sides. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has claimed his nuclear energy policy would cut power bills by 44 per cent, but analysis by the renewables sector warns it could actually drive up electricity costs by more than $1000 a year for millions of Australians with rooftop

The post Renewables or nuclear will blow up electricity prices appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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