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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The Market Ear on the Deepseek effect. Just fine Other than the impact of the largest US stock nearly entering a bear market in one day, plus some collateral damage in other large stocks, the broader market held up just fine. The S&P 500 fell less than 1.5%, the Dow rose 0.7%, and the CBOE

The post Deepseek might creatively destroy Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 10:00 Source

I’m not sure where the rebar rally is coming from. There’s nothing much going on for demand. Perhaps it is the very weak seasonal restock. The Steel PMI ain’t it. Markets are very short ferrous so maybe that’s it. The outlook for rebar is terrible as China goes off the completions cliff, but perhaps steel

The post Iron ore weathers mounting headwinds appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:57 Source

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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:45 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:31 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:30 Source

I’m assuming most readers are at least somewhat aware of DeepSeek over the past week, which culminated in a large sell-off in AI stocks on Monday. I thought it worth putting down some thoughts about where this may go. Quick background A small Chinese company, DeepSeek, released a large language model that matches or betters

The post Some DeepSeek thoughts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Wall Street rebounded overnight from its Deepseek AI start of week dramas with tech stocks rebounding while other industrials were largely unchanged as they absorbed the latest macroeconomic news in the US and await the next FOMC meeting. FX markets were largely unmoved as well, absorbing the post weekend volatility and even more Trump Tariff

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 07:27 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 06:59 Source

Already? DXY is back. AUD flamed out. Auld lead boots is back. Commods got tariffed. Miners ouch. EM so yetserday. Junk trying to throw some fuel on risk. As yields ease. Stocks rebounded. It’s hard to see how much further a DXY correction can get when El Trumpo fires off daily tariff warnings. Credit Agricole

The post Australian dollar rally cooked already? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 00:10 Source

Domain published the following chart showing how Melbourne house values have risen far quicker than unit values. “A typical house in Melbourne cost buyers 51.1% – or $310,202 – more than a unit in December 2024, according to CoreLogic data”, the article reads. “That has more than doubled since December 2014, when the gap was

The post A house and backyard become distant dreams appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 23:42 Source

Back when I was at university studying palaeontology, while quaffing our numerous cups of coffee during the day, I and a colleague used to muse about the ideal palaeontological job we wanted, and it usually came down to working at the Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology and Geophysics (BMR) in Canberra. We didn’t think it would ever happen, and that we would initially be the most highly qualified ‘check-out chicks’ in a local supermarket.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 18:30 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 18:24 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 17:26 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 17:00 Source

Asian stock markets are having a hard time swallowing the volatility around the overnight moves on Wall Street due to the Deepseek AI problems, while equally swallowing the Deep Suck coming out of the White House around more tariffs. The USD was pushed significantly higher after several sessions of weakness with the Australian dollar breaking

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 15:13 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 14:47 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 14:30 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 13:00 Source

So says Bernstein. Did DeepSeek really “build OpenAI for $5M? There are actually two model families in discussion. The first family is DeepSeek-V3, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) large language model which, through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requires a small fraction of the

The post Deepseek. Don’t panic! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Westpac with the note. The Westpac Card Tracker Index* has come off a volatile Christmas-New Year period, retracing 4.5pts over the last two weeks to 137.8. The latest Index read is now slightly below the Dec month average (noting that all figures are adjusted for regular seasonal fluctuations). Underlying momentum has remained steady but unspectacular through the

The post Consumer fades appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 12:26 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 12:00 Source

MB has a love-hate relationship with The Australian’s Judith Sloan. The hate is usually about gas. I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks it’s passing strange – more than passing strange – that Australia is about to become an importer of liquefied natural gas as well as an exporter. …How did this bizarre

The post Who is to blame for the East Coast gas cartel? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 11:59 Source

The FT with the story. Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for new universal tariffs on US imports to start at 2.5 per cent and rise gradually, said four people familiar with the proposal. The 2.5 per cent levy would move higher by the same amount each month, the people familiar with it

The post Australian dollar pounded as tariff talk resumes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 11:30 Source

You can’t retain government on a commitment to retaining government, which is all Albo the backroom bovver boy has ever offered. A majority of voters for the first time expect the Coalition to win the next federal election, with Anthony Albanese sliding to the lowest approval levels since becoming Prime Minister amid a fall in support for

The post Albo’s polling collapses appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 11:19 Source

Had an idle chat in the car the other day about my perfect cafe. I surprised myself with the number of ideas I immediately had for such a thing. Almost as if I’d been thinking about it for years.

In no particular order then, in JB’s cafe…

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The data flow in Australia this week centres on Wednesday’s vitally important Q4 24 CPI release. This inflation print will make or break the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver an interest rate cut at its next meeting on 18 February. CBA estimates that the policy-relevant trimmed-mean CPI rose by 0.5%

The post D-Day approaches for Australian interest rates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Ferrous markets are rallying into LNY. The underpinnings remain weak. Flat is OK. Long is not. Is tariff front running done? I’m a buyer of puts on strength into May seasonal weakness.

The post Iron ore surges into the void appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 10:00 Source

In the last couple of weeks, the recovery in China’s primary property market has slowed. The secondary market slowed too, though not quite so much. Prices are threatening to bottom in both markets. Sentiment sucks. Oh dear! Stimulus lol. Ain’t no future ‘ere. Meanwhile, the wider economy also slowed with the January PMIs. Manufacturing. Services.

The post Chinese property (and) recovery sputters appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The Market Ear with the carnage.  It was late On Thursday we pointed out the logic on why it was “Getting Late To Chase The Market”. SPX has reversed aggressively right in the top of the range. 100 day comes in around 5950 (futures), but the big supports are down in the 5900/5850 area. This

The post Deepseek pops the tech bubble appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Big drama on Wall Street overnight as AI dragged tech stocks down heavily with the NASDAQ losing nearly 4% as Nvidia and others lost significant ground. Broader industrial shares were hit as well with European stocks also failing to advance, sending a dark signal for Asian markets on this morning’s open. The USD is getting

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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