Blogotariat

Primary votes for major parties have hit a record low, and they may break that record this weekend. There are also more crossbenchers in the House of Representatives than ever before, with numerous other credible candidates threatening to produce an even larger crossbench in the new parliament. Certainly there is a lot of talk about a hung parliament.

But it would be wrong to assume that we have seen the last majority government, or that multi-party majorities in the House will be our universal experience.

The latest State of the Land Report 2025 from the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) forecasts that the nation’s housing crisis will worsen as demand from population growth (immigration) continues to outrun housing construction: UDIA’s long-run analysis of national population and dwelling growth highlights a serious divergence in new dwelling supply not keeping pace

Edify adds another project to EPBC queue, this time about an agrisolar and battery project that had the planning department curious about the age and sex of the sheep.

The latest US GDP print for Q1 came in worse than expected, sending Wall Street down 2% at one stage before the hopium set in as markets recovered towards the close on reports of a possible Canadian deal with the new PM. The USD was mixed against the majors with some return to strength against

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Coalition claims its climate track record is better than Labor's. Wait until you find out why ...

Australia’s productivity growth has averaged just 0.2% a year over the last decade. Labor’s first budget in 2022 included the assumption that productivity growth would average 1.2% over the long-term. The Coalition contends that annual GDP would be about $250 billion higher if productivity had grown at this pace, while annual tax revenue would have

The post Australia is trapped in a productivity death spiral appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Some interesting local and Chinese reports were absorbed by markets in Asia today, with all eyes really on Friday’s US non farm payroll print and of course, any more waffles coming from the Oval Office about “deals” around Trump’s tariffs. The latest Chinese manufacturing PMI prints weren’t grim as expected but still so a sharp

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

"Two blackouts, one root cause:" Energy expert says Spain failed to learn lessons from South Australia blackout, and had no batteries, and no flexibility on its grid.

AEMO says capacity of wind, solar and battery storage projects queuing for connection in Australia's main grid has jumped to more than 50 GW for first time.

Elderly parent visas are Australia’s most costly and should be abolished. Around 8,500 permanent parent visas are issued every year. The 2023 Migration Review from the Australian Treasury estimated that each parent visa costs Australian taxpayers $393,000: The Treasury has estimated that each parent permanent migrant costs $393,000 over their remaining lifetime in Australia. Older

The latest polling from Resolve Political Monitor shows Labor leading the Coalition 53% to 47% in two-party terms. Anthony Albanese also leads Peter Dutton by 47% to 31% as preferred Prime Minister. However, Resolve notes that Labor’s primary vote “remains weaker than it was at the last election, down from 32.6% to 3%, highlighting the

The post Peter Dutton prays for an election miracle appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The ferrous complex is not well. As the trade shock begins. Morgan Stanley. Our Asia Economists see China’s 2Q GDP growth tracking below 4.5% Y/Y (vs. 5.4% Y/Y in1Q) as more hard data points are showing that tariffs are affecting activity: container throughput is declining, freight shipping prices to the US are slumping, and China’s

The post Iron ore at the edge appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Market Ear on diving US leading indicators.    Post crisis lows VIX at the lowest levels since the early April panic. Note the aggressive VVIX implosion, as well as the latest little bid in VVIX. Volatility is not dirt cheap, but early long volatility positions/hedges are starting to screen attractive again. Our full volatility

The post Here comes the recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.