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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 13:45 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 13:40 Source

From Bloomie: Hong Kong unexpectedly overtook the U.S. in September as the top destination for Chinese shipments. Not everyone is convinced those flows were genuine. Analysts at banks including Everbright Securities Co., Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Bank of Communications Co. said over-invoicing and over-reporting may explain the 34 percent surge in exports to Hong […]

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 13:35 Source

Charlie Aitken thinks so, from The Australian: Bell Potter Executive Director Charlie Aitken expects spot iron ore to bounce to US$95/ton on restocking, pushing iron ore miners up further after yesterday’s gains. Spot iron ore rose 4.9% to US$84.17 overnight, matching gains in iron ore and steel rebar futures after China’s imports data showed a […]

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 13:30 Source

Now I’m not about to don a sandwich board and haunt the cinema district, but it seems to me that we are hurtling towards an apocalypse of our own making.

Whilst I am not a religious person, in the orthodox sense anyway, I have enjoyed studying the bible. There are enough historical references to make it an interesting mystery sorting the fact from the fiction.  It also provides endless material for philosophical debate.  It suggests a moral and ethical code for a growing society, even if it is a paternalistic view.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 13:20 Source

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Political Owl Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 13:18 Source

New global temperature records are normally accompanies by an El Niño event but 2014 is well on the way without one. NASA reported at the weekend that last month was the warmest September globally since records began being kept in 1880.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 13:14 Source

There are many business surveys out there and most have questions, in some shape  or form, that are applicable to the labour market. To generate a broader and deeper  labour market indicator, Westpac compiles all the relevant indicators from these  surveys into the proprietary Westpac Jobs Index. With the release of the NAB monthly survey […]

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 12:57 Source

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Jack the Insider Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 12:41 Source

Tony Abbott’s comments concerning Russian president, Vladimir Putin’s arrival in Australia next month created the enticing prospect of a new form of global conflict management.…

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Political Owl Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 12:40 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 12:35 Source

Jeez this is bad, from Forexlive: Client note from UBS economists (via MNI): RBA’s “neutral” cash rate level is lower than before at around 3.75% to 4.0%, compared with “traditional” neutral cash rate of 5.5% to 5.75% They cite: “A combination of wider domestic lending margins relative to the RBA cash rate The likelihood of […]

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Drag0nista's Blog Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 12:28 Source

Abbott: The brawler lurks beneath. Weekly column for The HooplaFiled under: Politics Tagged: freudian slip, G20, MH17, shirtfront, Tony Abbott, Vladimir Putin

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 12:20 Source

From the inimitable Albert Edwards of SocGen: I have to commend a letter to the editor in the weekend Financial Times from a Matt Long. He clearly identifies current conditions as entirely consistent with the top of the bubble. This is the sort of incisive analysis that is often so lacking in our industry, Sir: The next […]

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 12:03 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 12:00 Source

The September NAB business survey is out and the flush of post-election exuberance is fading as expected. Here are the key numbers: Confidence down to 5 from 8 and 12 at the peak. Conditions down to 1 from 3 and 7 at the peak.  Employment fell to -4 from -1. NAB reckons: Business confidence lost […]

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 11:44 Source

As I read Hugh White’s article, Why the campaign against Islamic State is doomed’ in The Age today I felt he was saying everything I wanted to say about the way the conflict in Iraq is being handled. We never seem to learn from past mistakes and that is probably because each time history repeats itself we have a new batch of leaders in power eager to stamp their signature on current events and more eager to have their name written into history as well.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 11:26 Source

From Fairfax, Harvey Norman has won a competition for the world’s best short: New York-based SumZero, which bills itself as “the world’s largest community of investment professionals working at hedge funds, mutual funds, and private equity funds”, recently ran a Best Short contest and gave first place to an entry on the retailer. …The competition […]

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New Matilda Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 11:24 Source

The Forrest Review into Aboriginal employment has been savaged by a key welfare group.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 11:09 Source

By Leith van Onselen Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released its business confidence survey for September, which registered a 6.8 point (5.9%) rise over the month to be 9.8% below the peak recorded in October 2013 following the federal election, but above the average of the last four years (see next chart). The proportion of […]

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 10:47 Source

By Leith van Onselen The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research (RMR) consumer confidence index rose in the week ended 12 October, up 1.2 points (1.1%) to 113.8, taking it just above its long-run average reading of 113.2 (see next chart). The overall 1.1% rise in consumer confidence was driven by “perceptions of households’ financial situation compared to […]

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 10:24 Source

By Leith van Onselen James Laurenceson, Deputy Director and Professor from the Australia-China Relations Institute at Sydney’s University of Technology, has posted an article in The Conversation lambasting anyone that dare criticise foreign investment in Australian residential real estate. Let’s take a look at Laurenceson’s main arguments: Despite valiant efforts by commentators such as Bernard […]

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The Tally Room Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 10:15 Source

Preston1-2PPPreston is a very safe Labor seat covering parts of the northern suburbs of Melbourne, including most of the suburbs of Preston and Reservoir.

The seat has been held by Labor MP Robin Scott since 2006, and Scott’s margin now sits at 20.2%.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 10:06 Source

But they should. From the AFR: It is finally D-day for Arrium. After four weeks of trading well under 48¢ a share, Arrium’s underwriter UBS will hand out the losses among its hedge fund clients from 9am on Tuesday morning…Assuming about a 2 per cent sub-underwriting fee, it means $80 million or so in paper losses for the […]

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Global Guerrillas Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 10:00 Source

ISIS is the open source insurgency (see Wikipedia) I warned about when I began writing Global Guerrillas back in 2004.  

For example:

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 09:59 Source

A really good speech today from the RBA’s Guy Debelle which shows why John Edwards should be locked in a cupboard with a gag. Debelle puts the fear of death into speculators and markets about the mis-pricing of the currency (and broader markets). The Aussie didn’t fall much during the speech but that’s not the […]

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Cheeseburger Gothic Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 09:57 Source

Rich pickings for the snarky columnist this week. I was almost going to go with #shirtfronting but felt that with all the horrible news around at the moment, the weekends potato scallop/potato cake jihad needed revisting.

A crispy golden choice, if the early comments are any indication. The best, as always, are from those punters who could miss the point for Australia.

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Table Talk: Bob Ellis on Film and Theatre Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 09:49 Source

Abbott threatened to ‘shirtfront’ Putin when he came to Brisbane because he did not order the shooting down of MH 17 and had nothing to do with it, the cunning swine. He would not, however, ‘shirtfront’ Xi Jinping, who would be there also, because he refused to give long-promised democracy to ten thousand protesting students in Hong Kong, or, indeed, to 1.3 billion adjacent Chinese.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 09:39 Source

Yes it is. And here is why from Citi exploring all of the themes that I have used myself: It is difficult to avoid concluding, when looking at charts of oil, iron ore or the GSCI commodity index, that we are in a commodity bear market. There are myriad definitions of what constitutes a commodity bear market […]

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 09:23 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 14, 2014 - 08:50 Source

From Business Insider: It seems Westpac chief economist Bill Evans has a strong following in the trading universe with his dual call of a rally in the Aussie dollar and a 15% surge in iron ore finding traction. The Aussie rallied from a low of 0.8649 yesterday to hit a high of 0.8787 after buyers moved in […]

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