NSW Nationals MP Adam Marshall announced his retirement yesterday, which will force a by-election for his state seat of Northern Tablelands in the New England region of NSW.
Northern Tablelands has always been a strong area for the Nationals, but has also been a strong area for independents in the past. Richard Torbay won the seat as an independent in 1999, and held it by a large margin until he quit in 2013 after a failed attempt at contesting the overlapping federal seat as a National.
Adam Marshall won the 2013 by-election with ease, and held the seat by large margins at the next three elections. He held the seat by a 33.8% margin in 2023.
A strong independent could do well here, but in the absence of such a campaign the seat should stay safely with the Nationals.