Tasmania’s lower house will be expanding in size from 25 to 35 at the upcoming election.
Usually when we analyse election results, a key tool is to compare the results to the last election. Swings, or changes in seat count. But with a big increase in seat numbers, it’s harder to do a like-with-like comparison when there’s a 20% increase in the total numbers. While 13 seats would’ve been a majority under the old system, it would be a bad defeat under the new system.
So for this post I thought I would run through each of the five electorates, looking at the likely outcomes in 2021 under 35 seats.
I have partly used Kevin Bonham’s calculations that are at the end of this blog post. In summary, this is my estimates of the seat results at the last election.
Electorate
Liberal
Labor
Greens
Independent
Bass
4
2
1
Braddon
4
2
1
Clark
2
2
1
2
Franklin
3
3
1
Lyons
4
3
That adds up to a total of 17 Liberals, 12 Labor, 3 Greens and 3 independents. Although there is lineball calls in Braddon (where the independent seat could have been a fifth Liberal) and Lyons (where the third Labor seat could’ve gone to the Greens).
I’ll run through each electorate one by one below the fold.
Bass
The actual outcome in Bass was 3 Liberals and 2 Labor.
The increase in seat count increases Labor’s quota from 1.56 to 2.08 and locks in their two seats.
The Liberal Party’s quotas goes from 3.60 quotas to 4.80. But it’s worth bearing in mind that most of the vote went to Peter Gutwein, the premier at the time. Gutwein polled 48.2% – almost 3 quotas on the old system, and almost 4 on the latter. In the real election, quite a few of his preferences leaked out of the Liberal ticket to the point where the fourth candidate wasn’t competitive.
With the Greens quota increasing from 0.55 quotas to 0.73 quotas, I expect they would win that final seat.
That would produce a result of 4 Liberals, 2 Labor and 1 Greens.
Braddon
The actual outcome in Braddon was three Liberals and two Labor.
The Liberal quotas increased from 3.43 to 4.58. The first four Liberals are all quite competitve, on more than half of the new lower quota.
Labor’s vote is bumped up from 1.59 to 2.12. Enough to lock in their second seat, but not enough to be competitive for a third.
Even with the new quotas, the Greens are on less than half a quota.
Independent candidate Craig Garland’s vote is bumped up from 0.36 quotas to 0.48.
The question here is whether enough of the Liberal vote would have concentrated behind a fifth candidate in the expanded system, or would have scattered and lost to Garland. In Kevin’s scenario he went with Garland’s win, but the Liberal would have been close. If that fifth Liberal had won, it would have been enough for a slim Liberal majority.
So that’s a final outcome of 4 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Garland, or alternatively 5 Liberals and 2 Labor.
Clark
The actual outcome in Clark was two Liberal, one Labor, one Greens and one independent (Kristie Johnston).
The Liberal quotas bump up from 1.91 to 2.55, and Labor’s bumps up from 1.32 to 1.77.
The Greens bump up from 1.20 to 1.60. Kristie Johnston goes from 0.66 to 0.88 and the other independent, Sue Hickey, goes from 0.59 to 0.79.
Hickey was the last knocked out in 2021, so unsurprisingly she wins the sixth seat, and Labor is in a strong position for their second to win the seventh seat. The third Liberal and second Green are not too far away from being competitive but I don’t think either of them could have won.
This produces a final outcome of two Liberals, two Labor, one Greens and two independents.
Franklin
The actual outcome in Franklin was two Liberals, two Labor and one Greens.
This is probably the simplest one to model. The Liberal quota jumps from 2.54 to 3.38. So that would give them a third seat.
Meanwhile Labor’s vote jumps from 1.99 to 2.66, and the Greens jump from 1.14 to 1.52 quotas. While the Greens don’t look too far away from winning a second seat, Labor would have won a third seat in that scenario.
This produces a final outcome of three Liberals, three Labor and one Greens.
Lyons
The actual outcome in Lyons was three Liberals and two Labor.
The Liberal vote jumps from 3.07 quotas to 4.10 with the increased seat count, which should allow them to win a fourth seat.
The other result is a lineball call. The Labor vote increases from 1.95 quotas to 2.60, and the Greens vote increased from 0.53 quotas to 0.71.
While the Greens theoretically is closer to an extra quota than Labor, this lead vanishes if Labor’s second and third candidates can split their votes reasonably evenly (as they did in 2021). Kevin reckons that Labor would have won this seat, and I’ll go the same way.
This produces a final outcome of four Liberals and three Labor.
So that’s where we stand, and you can use this post to compare the seat results in 2024 to how they would have gone last time around.