7:22 – The 2PP swing in Mt Eliza Central was actually 0.8% to Labor. The overall swing is down to 4.1%.
7:21 – With ten booths reporting primary votes, the swing to Labor is up to 1.7%. I’m probably at the point where I won’t be reporting each individual booth swing, but Langwarrin North, Frankston South, Skye and Karingal Central have all reported.
7:16 – We’re continuing to see some really positive results for Labor. They’ve gained a 6% primary swing in Mount Eliza West. This means their primary vote swing overall after six booths is now 1.3% towards them.
7:14 – Another positive primary vote swing to Labor and modest swing to the Liberal Party in Seaford North.
7:13 – And we’ve got a 5.1% swing against Labor in Frankston Heights East. If that figure was replicated across the seat Labor would narrowly retain the seat.
7:12 – Just a 1.55% swing to Liberal Party on 2PP in Carrum Downs West.
7:10 – It turns out the third booth was Carrum Downs West, not Carrum Downs, and that booth has now reported 2PP figures. Overall it has brought the swing down to 6.8%, but I can’t see what the booth swing was there.
7:07 – Mount Eliza Central is the fourth booth to report primary votes and is much better for Labor than its northern neighbour. There’s a 3.9% swing to Labor, and a swing of just 0.4% to the Liberal Party.
7:00 – And Mount Eliza North’s two-party-preferred figures are now in, with a 9.98% swing to the Liberal Party. But we already know the next two booths were not quite so bad for Labor.
6:57 – Carrum Downs and Frankston Heights East have now reported, and the swing against Labor is down to just 1.6%, and the swing to the Liberals is down to 9.8%. Still a good start for the Liberal Party but a bit more modest.
6:51 – The first booth is Mount Eliza North, and it shows a 13% swing to the Liberal Party and a 6.2% swing away from Labor. There has also been a 4.85% swing away from the Greens there. It’s worth noting that three right-wing parties polled 3.9% there in 2022 but aren’t running today, so that may be exaggerating the Liberal swing, but overall not a good start for Labor.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the federal by-election for the Victorian seat of Dunkley. Join me as we follow the results tonight.