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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 09:48 Source
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John Quiggin Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 09:44 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Although the macro newsflow was relatively light on overnight it was all about the bond and currency markets as the latest Canadian inflation numbers following yesterday’s cut by the RBA led to further introspection on the trajectory of the ECB, which has led to the USD being pushed back across the board. US sovereign debt

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 09:06 Source

I did an advanced class at Jujitsu last night, only because it was one of those weird nights when mostly senior belts were in attendance. I think we had one yellow belt on the mat, so we were able to break out the secret techniques. We just put the yellow belt in a corner to do some grading work.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 08:40 Source

The media release accompanying the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 0.25% cut to the official cash rate (OCR) on Tuesday was a fairly vanilla affair that took a neutral stance. The release noted that risks to inflation have become “more balanced”, that policy is now “somewhat less restrictive”. The RBA also remained “cautious about the

The post Markets dial up rate cut forecasts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Last year, former federal Treasury official Stephen Anthony warned that Victoria may need a federal “bailout” due to increasing state debt, which reached $27,729 per person in 2023-24. “Victoria is on a suicide mission to record borrowing, just as global interest rates are about to hit 5%”, Anthony warned. “Potholes can’t get filled, emergency departments

The post Victoria leeches off NSW appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 07:47 Source
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John Quiggin Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 05:00 Source

Sorry about the delay on this one, and absence of recent posts. I’ve been in a bit of a rush, getting ready for travel. Will hopefully return to normal service soon.

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, May 21, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Australian Industry Group’s analysis of data from the Productivity Commission underlines the downturn in the nation’s housing sector. The Ai Group’s report shows that while labour productivity across the economy has increased by 24% over the last decade, this metric has fallen by 14% in relation to overall housing construction over the same period, and

The post Why Australia sucks at building homes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 19:36 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Risk markets in Asia are somewhat mixed in reaction to the flat sessions on Wall Street overnight with the Friday night cut by ratings agency Moody on US debt still reveberating, particularly within bond markets. The Trump regime is still failing to make deals with Japan which is seeing further strength in Yen while today’s

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 16:13 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 15:28 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 15:24 Source
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The Tally Room Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 14:48 Source

The AEC has now commenced the distribution of preferences for the seat of Calwell. Normally the AEC does not publish distribution of preference data until the count has concluded, but in recognition of the great deal of public interest the AEC has published a page where they will post the latest DoP data after each round of the count.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 14:47 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 14:41 Source

As widely expected by financial markets and economists, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% to 3.85%. In coming to its decision, the statement noted that “inflation continues to moderate”, with “annual trimmed mean inflation (2.9%) was below 3% for the first time since 2021 and headline inflation

The post RBA cuts by 0.25%. Remains coy on forward guidance. appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has not ruled out extending the federal government’s $6.8 billion energy rebates again. It was originally meant to expire in mid-2025, but has been extended for another six months. “From budget to budget, we see if we can do more”, Chalmers has said. Some members of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Economic ­Inclusion

The post Australia faces energy inflation shock appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:43 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:37 Source

Nationals Senate Leader Bridget McKenzie, Newly elected Nationals leader David Littleproud and newly elected Nationals Deputy Leader Perin Davey.</body></html>

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:35 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Steel sagged while iron ore firmed. April output for steel fell back to earth. But it is still largely EAF that is pancaked, protecting iron ore. The property bust absorbs more long steel which was EAF focused. China is never going decarbonise steel at this rate.

The post Property crash saves iron ore appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:02 Source

SMA solar farm

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Australia faces an extended period of Labor Party rule following the collapse of the federal Coalition. National’s leader David Littleproud today announced that the party has separated from the Liberal Party for the upcoming federal election. Littleproud said that he and incoming Liberal leader Sussan Ley tried unsuccessfully to reach an agreement: “This morning after

The post The Coalition collapses appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 12:30 Source

DXY sagged as stocks came off. AUD up. The trend is intact. Lead boots give you wings. Is gold setting up for another run? Metals growth no bueno. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk OK. Yield relief. Stocks BTFD. When the risk bid comes, AUD is the world’s most loved currency. This is the complete opposite

The post Australian dollar world’s most loved currency appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 12:00 Source

First it was China, now it is Japan. IEEFA. As both Eastern and Western Australia face gas shortfalls, Japan is onselling vast volumes of Australian LNG at a handsome profit. In-depth analysis of LNG shipment and contract data shows Japanese companies are lucratively onselling about half as much as they import from Australia. Last year

The post Japan rorts Aussie gas to death appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 11:30 Source

When a market is rising with so few participants, BTFD gets very strong. The Market Ear.  Breaking Good US mega-cap tech has broken its 5-month downtrend. Let’s have a look at all things going for the super-sector (and some things that are not). Source: Bloomberg Convincingly The ratio of NDX over RTY convincingly took out

The post BTFDWBH appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The Q4 national accounts, released in March, revealed that Australians finally emerged from their two-year recession after recording positive per capita GDP growth of 0.1%. The latest OECD Economic Outlook interim report predicts only 1.9% aggregate GDP growth in 2025 and 1.8% growth in 2026, suggesting that Australia will remain in the slow lane. As

The post Australia’s economy is stuck in the emergency lane appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 10:30 Source

There is no end in sight for the Chinese property bust as prices keep falling. Starts keep on falling. It’s the bad, the worse , and the ugly. Indeed, there is so far to fall given the inventory of unsold, incomplete, and holes in the ground that the downside remains epic. -17% completions are not

The post Nothing can save the Chinese property Titanic appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Tuesday, May 20, 2025 - 10:09 Source

For today I’ve got two maps, covering five seats in mid-suburban Sydney. While these seats are adjacent to each other, I’m keeping them as separate maps because the dynamics in these seats are different. The first map shows Bennelong, Parramatta and Reid. The second map shows the “Muslim seats” of Blaxland and Watson.

First, heading to Bennelong, Parramatta and Reid, these seats showed enormous and consistent swings on the two-party-preferred vote from Liberal to Labor, with almost every booth in the three seats swinging to Labor.

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