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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Asian share markets are generally weaker across the board as risk markets try to absorb the impact of the latest trade “deal” from the Trump regime while also anticipating some pretty big macro and economic releases in the coming session.  Wall Street is the only light of hope for the bubble boys although we have

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 14:14 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 14:13 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Via the always excellent Charlie McElligott at Nomura. From Left-Tail To Risk-Tail… 1). The “Trump Collar” helped to compress then collapse realized Volatility off the most extremely 100%ile levels April / May, as the market reconditioned to his reaction function (selling the call at the highs with emboldened tariff rhetoric, but long the put into

The post Do hedge now appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:45 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:40 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:33 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:30 Source

As we know, Australia’s East Coast already has a suite of secretly subsidised coal power stations in NSW, VIC and QLD to go alongside heavily subsidised renewables. The reason for this is that the “duck curve” of renewable energy, which makes power super cheap during the day, then expensive in the evening, does not work

The post Albo aims for energy trinity of doom appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:12 Source

The Albanese Government says it has brokered a deal with the Trump Administration that will see American beef allowed into Australia in return for America keeping Scott Morrison on US soil.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 13:00 Source

ABS Labour mobility was out yesterday and shows the Great Resignation is well and truly over, if it ever was. the job mobility rate decreased to 7.7% younger workers were more mobile than older workers, with 12% of people aged 15 to 24 years changing jobs 2.2 million people left or lost a job The annual

The post The Great Resignation is over, if it ever was appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Outfits like the Grattan Institute argue that Australia needs to maintain a high immigration policy to maximise productivity growth. Their analysis consistently overlooks the empirical evidence showing that Australia’s productivity growth declined as immigration surged. Australia has experienced the strongest population growth in the advanced world this century, yet its productivity performance has been abysmal.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 12:02 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 11:45 Source

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said that it was awaiting two vital pieces of data before lowering rates: the June labour force report and the Q2 CPI inflation print. The June labour force figures printed weaker than expected, with the headline unemployment rate rising to 4.31%—above the RBA’s latest projection. Full-time jobs contracted sharply,

The post Benign inflation greenlights RBA rate cut appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 11:40 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Ferrous is up and down again. At these prices, Indian ore will flow. Any push higher and they will gush. Meanwhile, Chinese property is still stuffed. Goldman. Sales are no bueno. Inventory improvement stalling. Completions are a bit better. The Politburo is in the next few days, so look out for more yawnulus.

The post Chinese property bust continues appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The issue of productivity and its impact on real earnings has been a major source of debate among Australian economists since the Global Financial Crisis. With productivity in headline terms flatlining for the best part of the last decade, except for the lockdown and closed border-driven bump seen during the pandemic, the issue has recently

The post Australia’s economy fires on wrong cylinder appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 10:01 Source

The press office of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has published an article suggesting that Russia and Washington should fight "Eurofascism" together, identifying France and Britain as its main ideologues. This is quite a contrast to the statements the service made a year ago. Vot Tak analyzed this and other publications of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service and traced how its rhetoric has changed since Donald Trump came to power in the United States.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The Australian’s Judith Sloan has challenged Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ claim that the federal government has “made a lot of progress together in our first term making our economy more productive, dynamic, and resilient”. Sloan noted that labour productivity is at 2016 levels and business investment’s share of the economy is similar to that of the

The post Jim Chalmers puts lipstick on productivity pig appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 10:00 Source

During the most recent glacial maximum, it's believed that land bridges extended from the surfaces and connected several of the spheres together.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is bottoming again. The Australian dollar has been trading a solid up channel. But at the lows it risks breaking. Lead boots are going nowhere. Gold is stuck, oil bouncing on Russia risk. Metals mania is caput. Big mining bear fully intact. EM toppy. Junk is all blue skies. Yields quiescent. Stocks faded. There

The post Two days to save the Australian dollar appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 09:00 Source

  Wall Street failed to make new highs overnight as risk markets await the looming Fed meeting and Friday’s jobs numbers amid absorbing the latest trade “frameworks of deals that likely won’t be respected” as peripheral nations still wait the 20-25% proposed tariff slog by the Trump regime, including Australia. The USD remains highs against

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 08:26 Source

The warm-up for next month’s three-day economic roundtable has begun, and this week we’ll start hearing from worthies who know exactly what we should do to improve our productivity. What’s more, they have the modelling to prove it.

 

Ross Gittins

Roundtable warning: When they say ‘modelling’ grab your bulldust detector

 

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The federal government was advised by eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman-Grant to scrap YouTube’s exemption from laws banning people under the age of 16 from using social media, which are scheduled to take effect in December. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared with David Spears on ABC Insiders over the weekend, where Albanese claimed that the eSafety

The post This is Australia, not 1984 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 07:52 Source

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Your Democracy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 06:56 Source

The approach is not doctrinal, but is about speaking frankly to both Washington and Beijing.

Here is a foreign minister speaking about Australia’s China debate: “We Australians tend to have a habit, a cast of mind, which seeks for simplicity, and is uneasy with complexity, in foreign policy. We tend to see issues in terms of simple dichotomies – black or white, either-or, all or nothing.

 

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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 06:53 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 06:52 Source

Nationals leader, and deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce in parliament.</body></html>

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 06:07 Source

You do not have this high an agreement on whether the Earth is round. AFR. Research by pollster Redbridge for the Australian Pipelines and Gas Association – which represents “downstream” gas businesses – found voter support for a domestic gas reserve at 86 per cent, while less than 5 per cent of voters expressed any

The post EVERYBODY wants gas reservation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, July 30, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Australia’s economy ranked 102nd out of 145 countries on the latest Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, which measures the diversity and knowledge intensity of a country’s export mix. Australia ranked behind Bangladesh (100) and Senegal (101). The ranking suggests that Australia has become one of the least self-sufficient and sophisticated economies in the world. ABC

The post How Australia’s economy turned African appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, July 29, 2025 - 17:59 Source

Why are we seeking simple happiness

In a world that survives on deep stress

Where many people experience distress

While only a few elites get success

By other countries’ race they aggress

 

We are promised a path to heaven

Though we bake in a climate oven

Or shot dead by raving mad men

Bleeding red all of the sudden

For the benefit of loons who govern

With ideas nothing worth a dozen

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