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Australia’s economy is crashing. Rate cuts incoming.

February 20, 2024 - 11:00 -- Admin

The ABC’s David Taylor published an article on Friday warning that Australia’s economy is stalling, pointing to higher unemployment in the months ahead. Taylor cites some leading economists who believe Australia’s job market has turned the corner, as evidenced by slowing business activity in addition to the uptick in the unemployment rate. “I absolutely think

Record immigration dumps on housing market and economy

February 20, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Over the weekend, I was interviewed by Luke Grant on Radio 2GB, where we discussed the sharp deterioration of Australia’s labour market and housing affordability, both of which are being negatively impacted by the federal government’s mass immigration policy. Below are highlights from the interview, along with key charts. ABS Labour Force data: The January labour

Macro Morning

February 20, 2024 - 09:00 -- Admin

Last night saw quiet markets due to the US long weekend with bond markets also sanguine, with European shares advancing slightly. The USD was basically unchanged with an almost empty economic calendar as the Australian dollar able to get off the floor and back above the 65 cent level. 10 year Treasury yield futures are

Iron ore goes splat

February 20, 2024 - 08:30 -- Admin

Back from holiday and the much anticipated new boom in steel output is caput: The benchmark March iron ore SZZFH4 on the Singapore Exchange slid 2.91% to $127.45 a ton, as of 0706 GMT, in part due to fading bets of early U.S. rate cuts amid stronger-than-expected U.S. producer prices in January. The weakness in the Singapore benchmark came

China is the new USSR

February 20, 2024 - 08:00 -- Admin

Watching the daily pump and dump of Bloomberg stories on China has become an amusing sport. Every day starts with bullishness and every end with bearish failure. Yesterday was all about how holiday spending, property and stocks boomed over LNY. By the close, it was a bust for spending: A deeper dive by economists at

What if it’s not a bubble?

February 20, 2024 - 07:30 -- Admin

By now, it is consensus that the equity market is in a bubble, which is a bit oxymoronic. The Market ar has more.  Titans then & now Intel and NVDA from 1995 to today. Axios The wedge On the one hand, the current wedge of market cap over earnings (for tech & communications) is starting

Aussies desperately want to live in houses, not high-rise

February 20, 2024 - 00:05 -- Admin

CoreLogic has released analysis showing that the price gap between detached houses and apartments hit a record high $293,950 as at January 2024: “At the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, the house premium, or the difference between median capital city house and unit values, was just 16.7%. Fast forward almost four years later,

Macro Afternoon

February 19, 2024 - 17:00 -- Admin

A cautious start to the trading week as Asian share markets absorb the reopening of Chinese equities which started lower despite some upbeat macro news. The USD is slightly lower against all the major currency pairs, especially gold while the Australian dollar is finally making some headway as it climbs  above the 65 cent level

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