The main cause of Australia’s rental crisis is obvious: a record increase in the country’s net overseas migration, which saw an unprecedented 518,000 net migrants arrive in 2022-23: This spike in population demand has resulted in historically low rental vacancy rates and skyrocketing rental prices: Australia’s rental problem is expected to run for the foreseeable
The global energy crash continues apace, with thermal coal (blue) at its weakest price since the Ukraine War, chasing LNG (black) lower: This is still far above global cost curves. The price will eventually settle back at $80 or so. LNG can go lower yet as well. In fact, LNG can crater over the next
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales data for December, which fell 2.7% over the month to be only 0.8% higher over the year. The result was far worse than analysts’ expectations (-0.9% month-on-month), with the annual 0.8% growth also well below both population growth (circa 2.4%) and inflation (4.6%). This means
The Australian reports that shadow cabinet ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss the federal government’s proposed changes to the legislated stage-three tax cuts, with MPs reportedly “split” over the changes. Senior sources within the Liberal Party have suggested that the Coalition will seek amendments to Labor’s legislation but is unlikely to vote against it.
For a profession based on sales commissions, Australian real estate agents are experiencing their own version of the Hunger Games. The following chart from Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro shows that for-sale listings, as monitored by SQM Research, are almost 30% lower than a decade ago: Separate CoreLogic data also shows that overall for-sale listings
Bonds are back this morning as the US Treasury delivers good news on supply: As a reminder, in our preview last night we showed that Deutsche Bank – which was indicative of the overall street – was expecting $797BN in Q1 borrowing, followed by $472BN in total Q2 borrowings. In the end, both numbers ended
Domain released its House Price Report for the December quarter, which showed that Sydney’s median house price hit a record $1,595,310 at the end of 2023. Independent economist Tarric Brooker posted analysis on Twitter (X) showing what proportion of a mortgage on a median-priced Sydney house someone earning $200,000 could afford, adjusted for inflation: “In
Something has gone wrong at Deloitte Access Economics. Although they can’t quite bring themselves to say it out loud, they are now in full agreement with MB, that the immigration-led economy is now disaster for Australians. “Meanwhile, the outlook for the Australian economy remains soft. When data for the December quarter of 2023 is released
By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA. Key points: Personal income tax cuts worth 0.8% of GDP will kick in from 1 July 2024. The Government will change the distribution of the previously legislated Stage 3 tax cuts, but the size of the expected tax cut in 2024/25 is little changed. Income tax
On the back of last week’s strong domestic out of the US, overnight saw some rate cut discussion from ECB officials which gave risk sentiment another boost as Wall Street rallied while European shares will play catchup if futures are to believed for tonight’s session. The USD slid back a little with the Australian dollar