Following last week’s CPI inflation shocker, financial markets abandoned hopes of further rate cuts. As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chose to hold the official cash rate steady at 3.60%, with its commentary turning hawkish. The Bank’s statement noted that “inflation has picked up”, with the 1.0% trimmed mean inflation print of 1.0%
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DXY has a juicy double bottom and is threatening to break out. AUD is under pressure. CNY too. Oil and gold are becalmed. The rising DXY is pressuring metals. Big miners ouch! EM is OK but will struggle if DXY rises. Junk is sending out a warning. Yields are still threatening to back up. Stocks
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Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation surged by 1.0% in the September quarter to be 3.0% higher year-on-year—the top of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band. Inflation pressures were broad-based, with the share of CPI items growing above 3% rising to 50% in Q3, up
The Market Ear with more. Weird market The S&P has stayed above its 50-day moving average for 128 straight days — one of the longest streaks ever, but at the same time more stocks are hitting 52-week lows than highs. Source: GS S&P Streaking We made it past the 5-months-in-a-row mark (which has been a
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Goldman with the note. Government Shutdown: Much Closer to the End Than to the Beginning2 The partial shutdown of the federal government looks likely to last longer than any prior shutdown, mainly because there is little political pressure to end it. A greater share of the public holds Republicans and President Trump responsible for the
Alan Kohler is one of the few ABC journalists willing to openly and honestly discuss Australia’s immigration system, which is the fundamental driver of the nation’s world-beating population growth. The following video presentation by Kohler explained how the surge in international students in Australia is one of the key drivers of the nation’s high immigration-driven
I spend a lot of time asking one simple question: Can earnings keep doing the heavy lifting? Valuations are stretched at the top end of the market, and the AI investment cycle is still in full flight. Yet, for all the worry, the income statement remains surprisingly resilient. So far, the reporting season has two
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Budget watcher Chris Richardson says that public service wage pressures are exceeding budget forecasts. “It would appear the wage pressure is beating the budget forecast and that was always the likely outcome”, he said. Richardson’s comments follow an AFR analysis of 16 financial reports by federal agencies, which revealed that 14 had unbudgeted increases in
Australia’s official unemployment rate was 4.5% in September, the highest reading since November 2021 and significantly above the Reserve Bank’s forecast contained in its August Statement of Monetary Policy. I have argued repeatedly that Australia’s labour market has been artificially propped up by the unprecedented boom in non-market sector jobs, funded by the taxpayer. Australia’s