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Macro Afternoon

May 1, 2025 - 17:00 -- Admin

Risk markets are still running on hopium as US officials admit there’s no talking going on whatsoever with China (who are having a week long holiday anyway – call back later Donny!) while the Bank of Japan held fire in today’s meeting which sent Yen selling off and stocks lifting higher. The latest trade data

Tariff shock begins in China

May 1, 2025 - 13:00 -- Admin

Commerzebank with the note. Manufacturing PMIs showed initial damage The official manufacturing PMI fell to contraction territory at 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, the lowest since December 2023 (Chart 1). The decline was due to a drop in production and new orders which both fell into contraction territory. In particular, new export orders

Flip-flopper Peter McDonald gaslights on immigration

May 1, 2025 - 12:30 -- Admin

Professor Peter McDonald is Australia’s leading flip-flopper on immigration (for example, see here, here and here). In 1999, Peter McDonald co-authored a parliamentary research paper, which concluded that it is “demographic nonsense to believe that immigration can help to keep our population young”, claimed that “levels of annual net migration above 80,000 become increasingly ineffective

Iron ore no beuno

May 1, 2025 - 12:00 -- Admin

Ferrous complex no bueno. Strangely, the indicators are going the other way, with the steel PMI firming. And other marginal indicators like steel order books doing OK too. Goldman. Commentary on 2025 sales stabilization is becoming more prevalent, albeit divergent across players: (i)A key pillar of the steel structure sector order growth turning positive in

Harry Triguboff plays Australians for fools

May 1, 2025 - 11:30 -- Admin

Billionaire Meriton founder ‘Highrise’ Harry Triguboff is the master of manipulation. For decades, Triguboff has persuaded politicians to implement policies favourable to his financial interests, including mass immigration. The interview below from 2006 illustrates this point, with Triguboff arguing that Sydney’s population needed to reach 20 million by 2050, with Australia’s population at 150 million.

How Melbourne transformed into a house price oasis

May 1, 2025 - 11:00 -- Admin

According to CoreLogic’s April home value index, Melbourne is the nation’s cheapest major capital city property market. Melbourne’s median dwelling value was $786,158 at the end of April 2025, $119,605 (13% lower) than the national capital city median. The improved affordability of Melbourne’s housing market comes after five years of relative stagnation. As seen in

Rallying on fumes

May 1, 2025 - 10:30 -- Admin

The Market Ear on the rally. Not too bad The 6 day SPX streak has actually been rather impressive. As John Flood writes: “Since 1970, S&P 500 up 6 days in a row with returns of over 7% has only happened 12 times. Post yesterday’s close we locked in # 13. We are due for a

The post Rallying on fumes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Record construction bankruptcies worsen housing shortage

May 1, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

The latest State of the Land Report 2025 from the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) forecasts that the nation’s housing crisis will worsen as demand from population growth (immigration) continues to outrun housing construction: UDIA’s long-run analysis of national population and dwelling growth highlights a serious divergence in new dwelling supply not keeping pace

Australian dollar bunkers down

May 1, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

The US share markets were mixed on Wednesday after data showed the US economy contracted in the March quarter for the first time in three years. The decrease underscored concerns about the impact of US tariffs and the global trade war on growth. The Dow Jones index rose by 142 points, or 0.4%, and the

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