The greatest parliamentary liar of our times, Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers, is lying again, this time about the Trump boogieman. Jim Chalmers will use new OECD and Treasury forecasts to amplify major risks to Australia’s economic recovery ahead of next week’s budget, with the Paris-based organisation warning that global inflation will stay higher for longer
I have spent years outlining the problems of free trade agreements (FTAs), which I learned while working as the Australian Treasury’s trade analyst and informally participating in discussions for the Australian-US FTA (AUSFTA). The first pitfall is that Australia’s FTAs were mostly negotiated in secret from the public, but opened to corporations and industry groups
The Australian Greens have urged the federal government to pass several flagship measures before the federal election in order to “Dutton-proof” them. Greens Leader Adam Bandt wrote to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Friday, offering to support three signature reforms if they are introduced in parliament before the May election. This includes Labor’s plan to
The Market Ear asks the question. US consumer: What’s happening? This is a GS basket of stocks called “middle income discretionary consumer basket”. Consumer discretionary was the worst performing sector of all sectors last week leading to calls for recession and doom. Betting against the US consumer is generally not a good long-term strategy, but
Over the weekend, veteran budget watcher Chris Richardson published a stinging critique of Australia’s “third world” tax system, which punishes workers and collects too little tax from efficient sources. “Australia may be a first-world nation, but we increasingly have a third-rate tax system”, Richardson wrote. “It last got a spit and polish a quarter of
The Chinese depression rolls on. Here’s the data wrap from Goldman. January-February activity data generally came in stronger than market expectations, although the magnitude of beat was modest. Industrial production (IP) growth moderated to 5.9% yoy in January-February from 6.2% yoy in December, faring much better than export growth which fell meaningfully in January-February. Fixed
So much for the ferrous rally. Chinese Jan/Feb data was not encouraging as steel output fell 1.5%. Iron ore demand was better with BOF output down only 0.5%. The rolling annuals for pig iron ore versus recycled not likely to improve from here. Any hope of a rebound was crushed by housing data. New starts
Wall Street’s rebound from Friday night continued overnight across most risk markets despite a lacklustre US retail sales print as trader’s await this week’s FOMC meeting from the Federal Reserve. European stocks continue to outperform while the USD slipped further against Euro and Pound Sterling while building somewhat against Yen although that maybe in anticipation
DXY to the ground. AUD follows EUR. And lead boots. Alas, oil refused to break. Bonus chart! Not much room left to sell. Goldman has cornered copper. Miners meh. EM another crack. Credit is fine. No good for stocks. Curve smasher. Stocks to the moon! The impressive Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, maintained the rage as
Over the weekend, I was interviewed by Luke Grant from Radio 2GB/4BC where I dissected the policy failures that are driving the nation’s energy price shocks. Below is a summary of the topics discussed. Electricity prices soar by up to 9% Labor’s 2021 Powering Australia Plan, released prior to the last federal election, promised that