There are hints of the trade shock landing on China but they are so far minor. American freight route costs have pancaked. But freight volumes are still fine. Perhaps as dumping elsewhere begins. Ahead is a problem. With some offset already accelerating on the ground. It’s not going to be a banner year for China.
DXY is making hard work of it. AUD is ripping your face off now. Lead boots will be lead boots. Oil is about to crater. I will buy a deeper gold pullback. Metals have no interest in growth. Miners yuck. EM gapped into madness. Junmk says no bueno. Treasuries are confused. Stocks are on fire
The federal election has delivered a stomping Labor victory with the party winning 85 seats and a comfortable majority, with 19 seats still in doubt. The Coalition was routed, scoring one of its lowest primary votes on record. Leader Peter Dutton lost his seat (good riddance), alongside senior figures like Michael Sukkar. Shadow immigration minister
Australians are about to be jilted. There is a very widespread disenchantment and disillusionment with politics, the media, any given person being reported on or even doing the reporting, and a pervasive sense of ‘this country is increasingly stuffed’ on the streets. The issues at the core of that are issues which both mainstream sides
International Reading: McDonald’s suffers worst U.S. sales decline since 2020, warns of ‘anti-American sentiment’ abroad – NBC McDonald’s Store Traffic Falls Unexpectedly As Diners Grow Uneasy About Economy – Huff Post Tim Cook says Trump tariffs could cost Apple more than $900M in June quarter – The Hill Trump’s tariffs: ‘It feels like Covid 2.0.
Risk markets are having a solid finish to the trading week while recent news that the Chinese may actually be open to talking about tariffs with the US, plus the Canadian auto industry seemingly getting another exemption on parts, with futures indicating an even better start in Europe. All eyes will be on the latest
I recently attended a forum on Climate and Economics in my local area with some very interesting topics discussed, ranging from the LNP’s nuclear power ideas to the dangers of not meeting Net Zero by 2050 and, of course, the upcoming Federal Election. Here are some snippets from the forum. The full transcript and audio
This week’s CPI data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed that the post-pandemic inflation surge is firmly in the rearview mirror. Australia’s policy-relevant underlying inflation fell to 2.9% in Q1 2025, to be tracked within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%. The pace of disinflation was also
The federal election campaign has seen both sides promise to use the federal budget to deliver another house price boom. Labor has undertaken to establish a state-sponsored subprime mortgage scheme by allowing all first-time home buyers to purchase a home with only a 5% down payment, with the government (taxpayers) guaranteeing 15% of the borrowers’
Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, is about as as conflicted as any analyst in Australian commentary. The teals and Greens are sheltered from the realities of our regions and industries that drive our economy. Under a minority government, their ideologically-driven energy agenda risks taking us further away from engineering realities. They