Macro Afternoon: 29 April 2025
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 Easy Listening
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Market tells RBA to cut fast and deep
On Wednesday, the all-important Q1 CPI will be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). CBA expects the policy-relevant trimmed mean CPI to print at 0.6% for the quarter, bringing the annual rate down to 2.8%, within the RBA’s target band. Six-month annualised trimmed mean CPI would also slow to only 2.2%, well within
Australian road user charges need overhaul
Coalition transport spokesperson Bridget McKenzie floated on Sunday, working with state governments on a road user charge after arguing that tax breaks for electric vehicle (EV) owners are being subsidised by internal combustion engine (ICE) car drivers. “The reality is under the Labor Party, they’re not contributing”, McKenzie told ABC’s Insiders. “The roads are deteriorating
Hartnett: Sell
Michael Hartnett at BofA. Zeitgeist:“If no recession, equity lows are in, simple; but can’t jump back on bull unless Treasury yields falling below 4%, and earnings growth stays above 5%”, asset allocator. Tale of the Tape: 3Bs of Bonds (fastest 50bps UST jump since May’09), Base (Trump approval drop from 53% to 46%–Chart 3), Billionaires
ABC and Guardian are a form of “hate media”
Debate is raging today about a label that Peter Dutton has applied to the ABC and The Guardian that they are “hate media”. Regular readers will know MB’s frustration with the bias of these outlets when it comes to subjects such as the impacts on Australia of immigration, energy, and foreign relations. I would describe
Victorians drown in taxes and debt
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data last week showing that Victorians are paying the highest state and local taxes in the nation. As illustrated in the table below, state and local government taxes were $6,348 per capita in 2023-24, $654 (11.5%) higher than the state and territory average. Victoria has also experienced a
Stop subsidising private car purchases
Electric vehicles (EVs) receive large subsidies in Australia. First, the Fringe Benefits Tax (FBT) exemption for battery EVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) is estimated to cost the federal budget more than $550 million in lost tax revenue each year. However, the FBT exemption for PHEVs expired on April 1, 2025. According to the FBT exemption
Iron ore meat into trade war sandwich
The ferrous complex continues to struggle. The one hand, the US/China trade freeze is beginning to bite. On the other hand, Beijing is readying more yawnulus. BofA. Politburo meeting pledged to ready emergency plans The Apr Politburo meeting was held on Apr 25. This was the first meeting after theUS tariff hikes that offered high-level
Dislikeable Dutton sends Coalition to new low
Opinion polls continue to collapse on Peter Dutton and the Coalition ahead of Saturday’s federal election. The latest YouGov polling has the Coalition’s primary vote plunging to just 31%, down from 33% last week, with Labor’s primary vote rising 0.5% to 33.5%. The result is the lowest-ever primary vote the Coalition has received, according to
Stocks party with the child president
The Market Ear on the bear market bounce. After the bounce After a 15% run, SPX meets trendline resistance with fading breadth, neutral RSI, and no oversold fuel left. Now it gets harder. Now what? The “easy” part of the bounce is over. Now comes a slightly more tricky setup. SPX is up some 15%