Macro Afternoon: 7 May 2025
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
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Reserve Bank needs to cut harder
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% to 3.50%. The reduction means the OCR has now fallen by 2.0% from its peak of 5.50%. On Wednesday, Statistics NZ released the Q1 2025 labour force report, which showed modestly higher employment, with the unemployment rate holding at 5.1%.
Winning the suburbs is the key to election victory
By Ross Elliott from The Pulse: There’s a great line from the comedy show Kath & Kim, where the very suburban Kim expresses her desire to be like affluent city people. “I want to be effluent Mum,” she says. “You ARE effluent, Kim,” replies the equally suburban Kath. The new political geography of affluent inner
Albo must stop Gasmageddon
This is not good news. The Australian. The EU has unveiled a long-promised plan to phase out its remaining gas imports from Russia by the end of 2027, a challenge given Europe’s continued dependence on Russian fossil fuels. “Today the European Union sends a very clear message to Russia: no more, no more, will we
The bull meets the bear
The Market Ear on a possibe bear market. Very extended The 10-day advance/decline line has gotten very extended. Bespoke: “We would not be surprised to see some downside mean reversion soon”. Source: Bespoke Death cross still in place SPX is hitting some sort of short term trend line here. We moved above the 50 day, but are
Recession-hit Aussies close their wallets
I noted on Monday how “Australian households cannot escape recession”, citing the Q4 2024 ABS national accounts figures showing that real per capita household consumption had fallen for eight consecutive quarters. The decline in consumption follows a record 8% fall in real per capita household incomes. The Q1 2025 retail sales figures also fell in
Dishonest ABC gaslights on housing solutions
The taxpayer-funded ABC has become one of Australia’s leading propagandists for Big Australia immigration and a high-density future. Check out the garbage below from the ABC imploring Australians to accept high-rise shoebox living as their future, as the federal government crush-loads our major cities with endless mass migration. “All over Australia we are being told
India and Pakistan on verge of war
The last thing the world needs is another war. We already have the conflict in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war. Now India and Pakistan are on the verge of war. It all began when Pakistani terrorists killed 26 people, mostly tourists, in Kashmir last month, which India blamed on Pakistan. A series of skirmishes ensued
Australian dollar launches golden rocket
DXY is struggling mightily still. AUD to the moon! Lead boots grow wings. Oil buy the fact. Metals growth no bueno. Mining dogs. EM meh. Junk hmmm… A little yield relief. Stocks flamed out. Gold has returned to its undollar best. AUD is gold in slow motion. Although gold is only about 7% of the
The bursting of the Green bubble
The Greens’ dream of becoming the ‘third force’ in Australian politics has been eviscerated following Saturday’s federal election. The Greens’ primary vote fell and they lost the lower house seats of Griffith and Brisbane, with vocal housing whinger Max Chandler-Mather booted. As of Wednesday morning, Greens Leader Adam Bandt was trailing Labor’s Sarah Witty 47.3%