Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from MacroBusiness

Macro Afternoon

June 2, 2025 - 16:30 -- Admin

More hesitation on risk markets as the weekend news of increased tensions on Chinese and US trade, including more off the cuff tariff announcements from the TACO-in-Chief unsettles the new start to the trading month. Currency markets area again winding up strength against the USD in response with the Australian dollar breaking out and accelerating

Reserve Bank sees disinflation ahead

June 2, 2025 - 14:00 -- Admin

Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the official cash rate (OCR) to 3.25%, down 2.25% from the recent peak. The vote in favour of cutting rates was overwhelming, with five members voting for and only one against. The Reserve Bank’s guidance, presented below, suggests that the OCR will bottom at around 2.75%.

Bloomberg destroys The Lucky Country

June 2, 2025 - 13:30 -- Admin

This is a fairly accurate assessment from Bloomberg on why Australia is stuffed. They even manage to address the externalities of immigration without getting wowserish about it. A few quick points I will add: Restoring Australian manufacturing now would take a war. At 5% of GDP, it’s all but gone. Therefore, there is no productivity

Chinese yawnulus same old, same old

June 2, 2025 - 12:30 -- Admin

Chinese property is still stuffed. Therefore, so too is Chinese consumer confidence. Those arguing China will become a consumer economy are delusional. It’s all the same thing. They throw money into local government sinkholes. They build stuff they don’t need. They trade as much as possible. And they cheat when someone tries to change it.

Is Australia’s population growth rising or falling?

June 2, 2025 - 10:30 -- Admin

CBA senior economist Stephen Wu created the following chart showing the divergence between various population measures: According to Wu: Next week’s National Accounts release (4/6) will contain an updated estimate of population growth, which is driven by net overseas migration (NOM). The already-released retail trade data show estimates of population growth will be downwardly revised

Pages