The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on permanent and long-term arrivals and departures to Australia last week. There were 111,740 net permanent and long-term arrivals in February, with 158,980 arriving over the quarter. The following chart from Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro illustrates how net overseas migration appears to have rebounded strongly in
The Market Ear on equities. The outlook is so awful… When macro economists sound the most bearish, it often means the worst is already priced in. Markets don’t wait for confirmation—they front-run fear. Historically, when the consensus gets overwhelmingly negative, the actual downside rarely plays out as expected. Yes, we admit that this process has
One of the most volatile trading week’s has come and gone but all the signs remain that volatility is here to stay with weekend news that the “Art of the Deal” maker has already given up his key Trump card by exempting Chinese computers and smart phones from the 145% tariff slaps, while China is
The Q4 2024 national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that households were stuck in a recession. Real per capita household consumption fell for a record eighth consecutive quarter. This followed a record 8% drop in real per capita household disposable income. CBA has released its Household Spending Insights (HSI) for March,
The Albanese government is primed to win the upcoming federal election, with all recent opinion polls showing them leading the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis. House prices will undoubtedly skyrocket following the election of a second-term Labor government. First, the latest interest rate predictions from the futures market tip that Australia’s official cash rate
FT Alphaville wraps up the sell-side views on tariffs. This was the week when the tariff tantrum morphed into something much more serious. Analysts and investors are now openly questioning whether the US can keep its position at the apex of global finance. Alphaville has raided our inbox for some of the more eye-catching bits
Should you invest now or wait for stock markets to settle? This is the number one question on every investor’s lips. The answer: It depends what kind of investor you are. Risk profiles and calculations can give you an indication of risk tolerance. But it is not until you get a decent market downturn that
International Reading: Trump Finally Confirms True Scope of China Tariffs—Setting Up Disaster – New Republic Is Trump Pulling Off the Biggest Financial Fraud in History? A Dire Warning – Integ Carney’s Checkmate: How Canada’s Quiet Bond Play Forced Trump to Drop Tariffs – Dean Blundell Trump burned the stock market with tariffs — then took
You can’t stop the bond music as we see seismic shifts in global trade and risk markets with the pressure on US Treasuries building further even as the Trump regime tries to backtrack its kindergarten level economic stupidity, while the Chinese, EU and Canada deftly move the chess pieces around the table. The USD is
This week saw the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% to 3.50%, as widely expected. The reduction means the OCR has now fallen by 2.0% from its peak of 5.50%. Curiously, the Reserve Bank’s commentary attached to its decision was not as dovish as expected. “Most members” saw