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Articles from The Tally Room

NSW 2023 – where preferences have flowed over time

March 2, 2023 - 09:30 -- Admin

The New South Wales Legislative Assembly has been elected by the optional preferential voting (OPV) method since 1981. Unlike compulsory preferential voting (CPV) which is used in most of Australia, voters are free to number as few or as many boxes as they wish. If a ballot paper is incomplete, the vote ‘exhausts’ once all of the candidates numbered on the ballot are no longer in the count.

The non-classic dimension in NSW

February 22, 2023 - 09:30 -- Admin

There are 93 seats in the NSW Legislative Assembly. While a majority of these seats will be straight-out contests between Labor and the Coalition, a sizeable share of these seats are what the Australian Electoral Commission calls ‘non-classic’ – where the final two-candidate-preferred count includes a minor party or independent candidate.

The starting point in NSW

February 20, 2023 - 09:30 -- Admin

As we commence the NSW state election campaign, there’s a bit of confusion about how many seats we should credit to each party as a starting point. This is understandable considering that we’ve had a redistribution, a seat changing hands at a by-election, and numerous MPs leaving their party to sit as independents or with another party. So for this post, I’m just running through those numbers to hopefully come to an agreed set of numbers.

NSW 2023 – rising preference flows deciding the upper house

February 14, 2023 - 10:30 -- Admin

When results are reported for the NSW upper house, generally there’s an expectation that the primary votes mostly tell us who will win. That’s mostly true, but at the last three elections there’s always been one seat that went to a party that benefited from stronger preference flows – and these stronger flows usually flow in one direction.