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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 11:00 Source

While Japan welcomes almost 37 million visitors per year and is widely considered one of the safest places in the world, in quarters more focused on economics, the focus is often placed on its status as a cautionary tale. In some ways, this characterisation is entirely fair. Japan is the developed world’s poster child for

The post Australia vs Japan – The Lucky Country Loses appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The biggest problem is the systemic long. Any decent shock gives VaR implosion. Fragile SPX futures basically reversing the bounce from yesterday. 6600 is the big short term level. The 50 day comes in right on that level. A close below, and 6500 is the next support, followed by the 100 day at 6400. A

The post Not out of the bear’s den appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 10:00 Source

This month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the official cash rate at 3.60%, citing resurgent inflation risks. The RBA’s statement alongside its decision noted that “the decline in underlying inflation has slowed”, with “recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest[ing] that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 09:30 Source

An MB reader has sent this excellent proposal for resolving the East Coast gas crisis by shutting down GLNG without creating sovereign risk. There’s a possible win/win/win scenario that could be negotiated Suitors for GLNG take a look at the books and run—I think the contingency liability not currently sitting on the Santos balance sheet

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Wall Street is trying to continue its rebound from its Friday night slump while navigating a speech by Fed Chair Powell as other risk markets are still expecting another TACO trade setup when the Fat House eventually capitulates. Meanwhile the USD was unable to continue its nascent lift with most of the majors returning to

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 06:08 Source

DXY is hovering. AUD dumped and pumped on tariff headlines. CNY has rolled. Gold to heaven, oil to hell. Metals turned casinos. RIO is breaking out of the big bear on the debasement trade. If it mined gold, I might agree. It doesn’t. EM dubious. Junk trying at the centre , not so much the

The post Australian dollar tariffied to death appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 04:33 Source

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Your Democracy Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 03:33 Source

New research from investment bank Goldman Sachs affirms, as progressive advocates and economists warned, that US consumers are bearing the brunt of President Donald Trump’s trade wars.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, October 15, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The latest batch of rental data from Cotality and SQM Research suggests that Australia’s rental market has tightened. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, Cotality reported a capital city vacancy rate of 1.5% in September, which was 0.4% lower than a year ago and the lowest vacancy rate on record: The number

The post Why Australia has a rental squeeze appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Club Troppo Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 22:26 Source

Share this video! Please! Well, the time has come folks. On Thursday I’ll be launching a video series that’s been over two years in the making. I could have written a book, but I made 20 short videos instead. Conner … Continue reading →

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Club Troppo Tuesday, October 14, 2025 - 22:24 Source

This piece began as a lengthy comment responding to Ken Parish’s post on my proposal for a third ‘people’s chamber’ chosen by lottery. I posted it on Substack a few weeks ago, but thought it might be a worthwhile post … Continue reading →

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