China isn’t growing. Just ask the PMIs. Manufacturing. Services. Combined. This economy is pancaked as its property sector implodes. China uses various tricks to exaggerate GDP: focusing on the supply side, failing to write down investments, and underestimating the GDP deflator. All of these overestimate growth that is not there. Now it is going to
The latest ABS Labour Force survey painted a deeply mixed picture of the job market. On the one hand, this single print presented a compelling picture: a substantial increase of 42,200 new jobs, all full-time in net terms, and a robust growth in hours worked. However, a longer view reveals a decidedly more challenging picture. As
The ferrous complex remains paralysed by iron ore prices that are too high for steel profits. But we are in some equilibrium, as steel demand and supply are locked together. Modestly reduced steel supply has been drawing down inventory. While lifting iron ore inventory at ports. Something needs to change to rebalance. Either the government
The post Pilbra killer fails to fire a shot appeared first on MacroBusiness.
The Australian National University (ANU) is one of the nation’s key purveyors of immigration propaganda. Propagandists like “Dr Demography” Liz Allen are regular mouthpieces on the pro-Big Australia migration circuit, as are the ANU Migration Hub’s Peter McDonald and Alan Gamlen. When Australia’s net overseas migration hit 530,000 in the year to December 2023, the
I long for a competent opposition. The Albanese government has sabotaged energy policy to such an extent that it is a miracle it remains in power. Check out some examples today. Cathy King is the owner of hairdressing business Toni&Guy, which has 22 salons across Sydney. Ms King, who manages three salons, says her electricity
The post The gas cartel is destroying Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Last week, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) released its new prudential standard, effective February 2026, which caps high-risk mortgages (debt-to-income ratio over 6x) at 20% of new lending. APRA’s announcement aims to manage housing vulnerabilities preemptively amid rising prices but excludes new housing builds and applies portfolio-wide, allowing banks flexibility while aligning with government goals
UNFORTUNATELY, THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE IS TOO REAL... IT COULD BE A SPOOF — OR WELL DISGUISED SATIRE AS FAR AS I COULD MAKE IT... BUT.....
I’ve been seeing more and more alarmism about the idea that, on current demographic trends, the world’s population might shrink to a billion in a century or two. That distant prospect is producing lots of advocacy for policies to increase birth rates right now.
Friday night saw Wall Street return from its short Thanksgiving break and aside from some technical difficulties trading was bullish across the major indicies, with European stock markets also lifting into the month end. All eyes are still on the Fed’s December meeting where a rate cut is a given, with USD pulling back again
The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.