The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already slashed the official cash rate (OCR) by 3.0% this cycle, taking it to 2.5% from its recent peak of 5.5%. This reduction in the OCR has slashed mortgage rates, which, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodian Macro, are now tracking at around pre-pandemic levels. However,
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Like all things El Trumpo, nothing lasts very long. The Market Ear on the stock rebound. The crowd Once again they managed loading up on puts at local market lows. The crowd is the crowd for a reason….Chart shows put/call ratio vs SPY. Source: Tradingview Selling lows? Was Thursday tech capitulation? Shorting lows is painful,
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Recent job advertisements and vacancy data, presented below by Shane Oliver from AMP, suggest that Australia’s labour market is gradually softening. Last week’s Q3 wage data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) also struck a soft tone, with private sector wage growth falling sharply, partly offset by strength in public sector wages: SEEK has
When looking at a chart of U.S. household debt, one can’t help but be struck at how well American households have managed the post-Global Financial Crisis era. In December 2007, the point at which the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research began the ‘Great Recession’, total household debt to GDP stood at 100.2% of GDP.
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Never let the truth get in the way of a good price rally in the iron ore market. With another Chinese property rescue on the way, why not? Well, there is this. John Lam expects home prices to fall for at least another two years before a recovery in China’s residential property market can take
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Every cycle has a bellwether. Today it’s NVIDIA. We’re operating in a two-speed economy where the US consumer looks fatigued, while corporate AI spending is a rocket ship. Let me share how I’m thinking about NVIDIA: why the recent result mattered, why capex is the fulcrum, what the depreciation debate gets right and wrong, how
All we had to do was survive until 25. Remember that jaunty little phrase? Now, here we are, limping to the end of a year in which we’ve experienced the highest unemployment numbers since 1994 and felt GDP contract like we were 10cm dilated.
With the Victorian government drowning in debt and facing further credit rating downgrades, the Labor state government is seeking to rein in costs. Recent infrastructure projects in Victoria have faced major cost blowouts, including the VNI West transmission line (doubling to $7.6–11.4 billion), the Suburban Rail Loop (announced to cost $50 billion, now more than
How did a fundamental reform so critical to the national interest shift from the lunatic centre to the sensible fringe? Australia’s failed East Coast gas market is critical to the entire economy. Unless it is fixed, Australia will have permanent stagflation, industrial hollowing out, and a failing energy transition. The subject is hardly a fringe