Blogotariat

Morgan Stanley with the note. Investors are laser-focused on Beijing’s stimulus, as the record US tariff hikes and little room for near-term de-escalation mean rising downside to growth. We don’t expect immediate new stimulus. Beijing is likely to prioritize front-loading of the pre-announced Rmb2trn NPC package in 2Q.A more plausible timing for a Rmb1-1.5trn supplementary

The post What China stimulus can we expect? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Over the weekend, we saw both sides of politics ‘jump the shark’ on housing policy. The Albanese government effectively announced a state-sponsored subprime mortgage scheme by promising to allow all first home buyers to purchase a home with only a 5% deposit, with the government guaranteeing up to 15% of the loan value, thereby eliminating

The post Politicians blow world’s biggest house price bubble appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on permanent and long-term arrivals and departures to Australia last week. There were 111,740 net permanent and long-term arrivals in February, with 158,980 arriving over the quarter. The following chart from Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro illustrates how net overseas migration appears to have rebounded strongly in

The post Migration surge pressures rental market appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Market Ear on equities. The outlook is so awful… When macro economists sound the most bearish, it often means the worst is already priced in. Markets don’t wait for confirmation—they front-run fear. Historically, when the consensus gets overwhelmingly negative, the actual downside rarely plays out as expected. Yes, we admit that this process has

The post Recession is not priced appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Former mastermind of Tesla energy and EV batteries re-emerges after surfing break as head of new company looking to upgrade the grid for a renewable future.

One of the most volatile trading week’s has come and gone but all the signs remain that volatility is here to stay with weekend news that the “Art of the Deal” maker has already given up his key Trump card by exempting Chinese computers and smart phones from the 145% tariff slaps, while China is

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

A new four-lane highway cutting through tens of thousands of acres of protected Amazon rainforest is being built for the COP30 climate summit in the Brazilian city of Belém.

It aims to ease traffic to the city, which will host more than 50,000 people - including world leaders - at the conference in November.

Washington: Australia has been warned Donald Trump’s tariffs could push up the cost of submarines due to be acquired under the AUKUS defence pact, as Trump tasks Elon Musk’s team with improving the US capacity to build the boats.

A second big battery in the heart of Victoria's brown coal centre is now working its way through the commissioning process.

President Donald Trump has prolonged US sanctions on Russia for another year, based on the supposition that Moscow still poses a serious threat to the country’s national security.

Washington placed punitive restrictions on Russia after it absorbed Crimea following a referendum held in 2014, and later over Moscow’s alleged meddling in American elections. The sanctions were drastically expanded following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022.

Advice for homebuyers and citizens: housing guarantee schemes deserve your derisive laughter, whoever backs them.

A young woman who I have known for many years messaged me yesterday to ask a question. She and her partner have been saving hard for a year or so, and were planning to save for a few years more. This a pattern that millions of Australians have followed over the past two hundred years, and it has generally worked well.

Imagine living in a world where every worker contributed the same amount, every problem was equally important, and every product was equally popular with users. Planning would be so simple. In reality, however, the distribution is quite skewed. In most people’s everyday routines, low-impact chores hijack a lot of their day.

Pareto principle: the law of the vital few