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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 11:30 Source

It’s the bust that keeps on giving. Sales volumes were flat year on year. But that’s the end of the good news. Starts are still in free fall, down nearly 80% from peak. And there is still more empty, idle, half-built and unsold stock than you can poke an entire country at, about one-third from

The post Chinese property surges downwards appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Slowly but surely, iron ore is breaking down. Yesterday’s May output data was the weakest in six years. Yet, it is not yet doomsday, except, perhaps, for the climate. China has abandoned any pretence of a green steel transition. The output falls are equally large in BOF and EAF, but the Five Year Plan was

The post China’s green steel dream disappears appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 10:30 Source

In last month’s budget speech, Victorian Treasurer Jaclyn Symes labelled the state government’s controversial Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) project as “Australia’s largest housing project”. “The Suburban Rail Loop is Australia’s largest housing project”, Symes proclaimed. “With Melbourne expected to reach the size of London by the 2050s, it will deliver 70,000 more homes on the

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Sell Abu Dhabi half of Santos. Or some fraction of that makes sense to the national interest. We must all remember the history of this evil firm. As explained by The Australian in 2017 (below), Santos built two LNG export trains out of Gladstone, Queensland, without enough gas to meet export contracts. As a result,

The post Sell Abu Dhabi half of Santos appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is flopping around like a dead fish. AUD is back near the top of its rising channel. Lead boots are floating higher. Two shorts? Metals grinding higher. Miners yuk. EM meh. Junk OK. The steepener steepens. Stocks love a good bombing. All together now to the Beach Boys “Bomb, bomb, bomb…bomb, bomb Iran. Bomb,

The post Australian dollar bomb, bomb, bomb…bomb, bombs Iran appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 09:00 Source

  As the G7 meeting in Canada gets underway, the headlines are still dominated by the Israeli-Iranian war with the potential for a ceasefire pushing European and US stocks higher overnight. The USD was able to gain some lost ground but remained quite mixed against the currency majors with news of a potential trade deal

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 08:41 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 08:31 Source

Iran denies US assertion it is 'months away' from developing nuclear bomb"Iran does not seek a nuclear weapon. If we wanted to build a nuclear weapon, we could have done it some time ago, but we decided that nuclear weapons would not augment our security and are in contradiction to our ideological views," Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Australia’s superannuation concessions need to be adjusted to make them more equitable and sustainable. According to the Australian Treasury, superannuation concessions cost the federal budget around $60 billion in foregone revenue in 2024-25 and are expected to grow rapidly. Concessions on contributions cost the federal budget $30,950 billion in FY25, rising to $36,750 billion in

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Your Democracy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 05:49 Source

Millions of protestors gathered across the US on Saturday across thousands of events to protest against Donald Trump’s administration in a planned series of events called “No Kings”.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 04:54 Source

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 01:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 00:05 Source

It was disappointing to see the Queensland’s Liberal-National government oppose exporting more gas to Victoria, claiming that it doesn’t have the gas supply capacity to keep “bailing out Victoria’s bad decisions”. Queensland Natural Resources Minister Dale told The AFR that his state would refuse to divert further supplies south and blamed the critical energy constraints

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Renew Economy Monday, June 16, 2025 - 18:11 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 16, 2025 - 18:05 Source
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The Tally Room Monday, June 16, 2025 - 16:26 Source

Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to discuss the collapse of the Tasmanian government just 15 months after the last election, and to look at some of the early moves for independents to find a new party home.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 16, 2025 - 16:00 Source

The Israel-Iran war continues to dominate risk markets as the new trading week gets underway here in Asia with share markets quite mixed while there has been a slight bit of strength in USD over the weekend gap, but still far from a proper safe haven bid. With all eyes on the Middle East conflict,

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Monday, June 16, 2025 - 15:44 Source

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.

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John Quiggin Monday, June 16, 2025 - 15:43 Source

Hi everyone

My  Brissie to the Bay cycle for MS Queensland, a huge success. Donations totalled $2595, which gave me the title of “Neuro Legend”. Thanks again to all the readers and friends who keep me going on events like this. I’ll never be competitive as a triathlete, but I’m still on top of my game as a fundraiser.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 16, 2025 - 15:20 Source
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Cheeseburger Gothic Monday, June 16, 2025 - 15:12 Source

I had a very grown-up weekend. Jane and I had lunch at a little French place down in the Valley, A la Bonne Franquette, a spot I’d never noticed before, but it was fantastic—then we caught Materialists at the cinema across the street.

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Renew Economy Monday, June 16, 2025 - 15:05 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 16, 2025 - 14:41 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 16, 2025 - 14:10 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 16, 2025 - 14:07 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 16, 2025 - 14:05 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, June 16, 2025 - 14:03 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, June 16, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Following one of the largest increases in the industrialised world during the Covid-19 pandemic, New Zealand’s housing prices fell sharply. According to the REINZ home price index, presented below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, New Zealand’s real inflation-adjusted home prices have reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Separate data provided this month by Cotality reported that

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 16, 2025 - 13:30 Source

It is a long-held belief of many in the Labor Party. Today it has morphed into doubts about AUKUS. Labor stalwart Sean Kelly. AUKUS, with its pros and cons, commands many column inches in this country; periodically it becomes the central topic of political debate, as it did last week. Similarly, there is much discussion

The post Should Australia give up on America? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, June 16, 2025 - 13:00 Source

ANZ has a good idea. Property construction will decline another 30% to 580 million m2 by 2035 in our baseline scenario. Over 50% of new demand will stem from upgrading, instead of urbanisation. Urban renewal is unlikely to contribute much to the sector. Property rent rather than property price will be crucial to stabilise the

The post Chinese property bottom far, far away appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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