Blogotariat

Last week I wrote about the dilemma of how to estimate a two-party-preferred vote in Bradfield. An actual two-party-preferred count has not been conducted between Liberal and Labor in that seat, and may not be conducted for some time. At the time I attempted to assess the likely two-party-preferred vote, but I expected that a more accurate calculation could be done once the distribution of preferences (including the three-candidate-preferred count) was published.

The past month has exposed the fallacy of the Albanese government’s target to build 1.2 million homes over five years, which commenced on 1 July 2024. The federal government’s own advisory body, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC), forecast that only 938,000 dwellings will be built nationwide by mid-2029, 262,000 below the target.

The post Australia is living in housing fantasy land appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Yesterday’s statement by Defence Minister Richard Marles that Australia’s geography and continent would be crucial to any United States prosecution of a war against China will go down as a dark moment in Australia’s history.

ARENA to provide $19.8m for NeoSmelt, a venture designed to prove that iron ore from Australia's giant Pilbara mining province can be used to make low carbon steel.

Waratah Super Battery sets Australian charging and discharge record as it works through commissioning, and as its owner snaps up staff from bankrupt supplier.

The leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) expressed support for Israel's security in a joint statement amid the escalation with Iran, pointing to the importance of de-escalation in the region.

"We affirm that Israel has a right to defend itself. We reiterate our support for the security of Israel," the statement says. "We urge that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza."

South Australia gears up to launch a long duration energy storage tender before the end of the year, calling for projects with at least eight hour durations.

New Zealand’s economy is a basket case. Consider the following data points, many of which come from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro. The following chart of national accounts data to Q4 2024 shows that New Zealand has experienced a sharp decline in GDP and national income. More recent data suggests that the economy remains moribund.

The post New Zealand is an ‘economic basket case’ appeared first on MacroBusiness.

According to The Guardian, Australia’s tobacco excise rate has tripled in the past decade, from 46c to $1.40 per cigarette, accounting for $28 of the average $40 price for a packet of 20 cigarettes. This has led economists to suggest either a freeze or a cut to the excise rate while Australia cracks down on

The post Sometimes less is more with taxation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Overbought, says the Market Ear. SPX vs US financial conditions The two have moved in tandem, but note the latest little gap… Source: BNY Turning cautious The great JPM market intelligence team have played the melt up well. They are turning more cautious here: Geopolitical tensions and energy price spikes raise pullback risk, though any

The post Overbought appeared first on MacroBusiness.