The Market Ear with the anatomy of a selloff. A bit too euphoric BofA writes: “…forward returns when sentiment hits euphoria are not appalling in a bull market. Especially when the market breadth is running at healthy levels, such as today’s.” BofA Finally SPX starting to pay attention to VIX finally. SPX vs VIX inverted.
Bad loans are everywhere: China is embarking on its biggest consolidation in the banking industry by merging hundreds of rural lenders into regional behemoths amid growing signs of financial stress. After engineering mergers of rural cooperatives and rural commercial banks in at least seven provinces since 2022, policymakers pinpointed tackling risks at the $6.7 trillion
DXY fell: AUD dumped then pumped: North Asia helped: Oil slumped on Gaza peace hopes: Metals followed: Miners meh: EM meh: Junk meh: Treasuries do not believe Jay Powell hawkishness: Which lifted stocks: US data was decent, with the ISM and construction spending printing above expectations: But it should still not lift DXY. The market
The forward-looking indicators for Australian housing construction continue to worsen, pointing to worsening housing shortages ahead. The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on dwelling approvals, commencements, and completions shows that each indicator is tracking around decade lows at the same time as Australia’s population is growing at an unprecedented pace: Loans
Asian share markets are reacting to the overnight moves on Wall Street and the latest FOMC meeting with rate cut expectations dampening the mood. The USD is quite mixed as a result although the Australian dollar is falling as domestic rate cut expectations hold true going into the RBA February meeting. Oil prices remain volatile
By Ross Elliott at The Pulse: “Rapid population growth – at rates above 2 percent, common in most developing countries today – acts as a brake on development. Up to a point, population growth can be accommodated… but the goal of development extends beyond accommodation of an even larger population; it is to improve people’s
Not all stock market bubbles are created equal. Some have a kernel or truth that enables a change in technology, finance or another economic segment to accelerate dramatically. Although the inflated prices cause some economic distortion, they also dramatically accelerate whatever breakthrough change is occurring. One such bubble is that around AI unfolding in the
CoreLogic and PropTrack have released their house price results for January with modest rises (CoreLogic) and flat results (PropTrack) recorded respectively. CoreLogic’s dwelling values index rose by 0.4% nationally in January, with mixed results recorded across the capital cities: Dwelling value growth decelerated sharply over the past quarter across Sydney and Melbourne: This dragged capital
Inflation has fallen rapidly and is approaching central bank targets in many countries. Is inflation going to stop at 2-3%, or will there be an undershoot? Tune in to this week’s podcast as Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen and Chief Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith give insight on 2024’s most important question. Can’t make it
I remain alert, not alarmed by the Middle East. But, there is an obvious risk case that gets worse, and Deutsche Bank has outlined it. Red Sea transits have collapsed: Longer shipping times means more containers needed: Oil is also simmering: However, it will take dramatic escalation to make it worse: I still think the