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Articles from MacroBusiness

Bonds go boom

November 30, 2023 - 12:30 -- Admin

The Market Ear with the latest positioning. TLT upside mania What a difference a month makes. We outlined the contrarian TLT logic on October 23, in our post Dare the TLT? The world’s most hated asset back then has reversed and we are trading above the 100 day for the first time since May. The

Albo hides Alboflation

November 30, 2023 - 11:40 -- Admin

Albo the Disaster is burying his energy and immigration inflation shocks under subsidies. Government policies are holding down inflation but electricity prices are starting to rise as rebates come to an end. The Monthly CPI Indicator rose 4.9% in the year to October, down from 5.6%yr in September and the recent peak of 8.4%yr at

Melbourne house price fall in November

November 30, 2023 - 11:00 -- Admin

CoreLogic has released its daily dwelling values index to 30 November, which shows that values rose by 0.6% at the 5-city aggregate level, driven by strong growth across Brisbane (1.2%), Adelaide (1.2%) and Perth (1.9%): By contrast, values actually fell across Melbourne (-0.1%), whereas Sydney values rose by only 0.3%. The next chart, which plots

The Victorian government is a financial black hole

November 30, 2023 - 10:40 -- Admin

Following nine years of financial incompetence from the Andrews Labor Government, Victoria is drowning in debt with the nation’s lowest credit rating: Victoria has the nation’s largest state debt (Source: Alex Joiner). Saul Eslake, an independent economist, asserts that Victoria’s mounting debt is attributable to the government’s decision to “embark on very big, largely debt-funded

Australia’s economic growth model is designed to fail

November 30, 2023 - 10:20 -- Admin

Simon Kuestenmacher from The Demographics Group believes that Australia’s population will double in size in just over 50 years, based on the ABS’ latest population projections: “The most bearish scenario sees our population doubling by 2129, the median scenario by 2095, and the most bullish scenario sees Australia at 52 million people by 2074. I

Global energy deflation builds

November 30, 2023 - 10:00 -- Admin

Global energy deflation is building. LNG is abundant in Europe: Prices are breaking down: US prices are following: Asian prices are breaking down: A cold northern winter could arrest this for a short time, but the underlying gas glut will otherwise express itself. And tip into coal: Australian gas prices are also down: Again crashing

CBA: Aussie inflation may “print with a 3-handle by December”

November 30, 2023 - 09:40 -- Admin

Following the 0.4% fall in the ABS monthly inflation indicator for October, CBA economist Stephen Wu believes there is a good chance that Australia’s CPI inflation could fall below 4% by the end of this year. Wu noted that the 0.4% fall in seasonally adjusted consumer prices was “the largest monthly decline in prices since

Iron ore to $150?

November 30, 2023 - 09:20 -- Admin

So says BMI: Seaborne iron ore prices are set to climb to as much as $150 per ton in the first half of 2024, according to analysts who have lifted their estimates on expectations of increased demand in China after recent stimulus measures. …Prices have already defied expectations in 2023 due to stronger-than-expected Chinese steel