Westpac joins the doves. December quarter CPI surprises to the downside In our CPI Preview, we noted that the risk to our December quarter CPI and Trimmed Mean estimates were to the downside. That risk ended up materialising, with the CPI increasing just 0.2%qtr/2.4%yr (Westpac f/c: 0.3%qtr/2.5%yr) while the Trimmed Mean rose 0.5%qtr/3.2%yr (Westpac f/c:
China is out of deflation! This is voucherflation as Beijing did giveaways in travel and white goods. Food helped. The PPI is wall-to-wall weakness. Inflation numbers were also boosted by the earlier LNY and will be given back in February. Deflation in China is forever now.
Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro posted the following update on labour productivity across major advanced nations. As you can see, Australia has recorded zero labour productivity growth since 2016, the worst performance of the nations sampled. While the precise causes of the Australian economy’s productivity decline are debatable, I attribute four primary drivers. First, the
I hate Victoria. It’s dull, has terrible weather, it’s up itself, and utterly fake left. The one thing it is not is an energy bludger. The East Coast gas cartel and its mates in the press have spent years blaming VIC for gas shortages, and it’s total bullshit. VIC has been the gas powerhouse of
Friday night saw a slightly weaker than expected jobs print from the US – aka the NFP or non farm payrolls – that saw some USD weakness but not across the board while Wall Street slumped again making for a two week low due to tech stocks. Don’t mention Tesla… The Australian dollar is still
Goldman is still bullish DXY but not so bearish AUD. USD: Tariff-fried.We see three key takeaways from a frenzied week. First, the recent back and forth headlines have not altered our view that tariffs are coming and this will materially impact exchange rates. In fact, our economists now expect a larger increase in the effective
Australia’s manufacturing sector has shrunk to just over 5% of GDP, the lowest share in the OECD. Late last month, federal Minister for Industry and Science Ed Husic spruiked Labor’s Future Made In Australia policy to boost local manufacturing. “In Labor’s first term in office, the policies have come thick and fast: the $15 billion
DXY is back on more tariff talk. AUD was soft. Lead boots are weighing. Gold is a machine. Copper bubble! Miners lagging. EM maybe. Junk in the trunk. Yields up. Stocks down. AUD CFTC still very short in futures but long in options. Futures rule. US jobs were reasonable enough—142k and 4% UE. Wages are
International Reading: Elon Musk Now Legally Banned from US Treasury Systems – MSM ‘Big money fraud’: Musk team reportedly gains access to Medicaid and Medicare computers – Raw Story Millions of federal workers face deadline today over whether to resign – CBS News Trump tariffs ‘made something snap in us’ – many Canadians see US
Asian share markets are somewhat mixed with only Chinese shares really advancing as local markets dip into the red for the week on the back of a much stronger Australian dollar while Japanese shares are suffering despite some good domestic economic prints. Oil markets are slowly decelerating from their recent falls with Brent crude still