Macro Afternoon: 30 September 2025
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
The post Macro Afternoon: 30 September 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Articles from MacroBusiness
Primary tabs
RBA holds on resurgent inflation risks
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has chosen to hold the official cash rate at 3.60%, in what was a unanimous decision. In arriving at its decision, the statement noted that “the decline in underlying inflation has slowed”, with “recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest[ing] that inflation in the September quarter may
Reserve Bank to cut 0.75% to save job market
On Monday, Stats NZ released data on filled jobs for August, which recorded a 0.2% monthly rise, in line with expectations. However, as shown below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the August data incorporated chunky historical revisions, which suggest a weaker labour market starting point. The earlier reported 0.2% increase in July was revised
Hastie’s path to power
When then Treasurer Scott Morrison came to the Prime Ministership in 2018, he did so as something of a compromise candidate. In the first leadership spill held on August 21, then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull defeated challenger Peter Dutton 48 votes to 35. This led to the now-infamous jab at Dutton that he was unable to
The Economics of Data Centres
The explosion of artificial intelligence has triggered one of the largest capital expenditure booms in history. Trillions of dollars are being poured into building and upgrading data centres, which now sit at the heart of the global economy. Understanding their underlying economics—cost structures, pressure points, and investment implications—is becoming essential for investors and policymakers alike.
Albo deploys John Howard’s immigration ‘bait and switch’
Former Coalition Prime Minister John Howard used a ‘bait-and-switch’ on the Australian public, scapegoating and closing the door on the very few refugees arriving by boat while throwing the door wide open to economic migrants arriving by air. The ultimate result was a significant increase in Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM), which surged from the
Is tobacco Australia’s biggest policy failure?
Health Minister Mark Butler has stated organised crime had recently taken a “stranglehold” over the illicit tobacco market and that the tobacco black market has “exploded” into the biggest threat to public health in Australia. “It started in Melbourne and it spread right through the country. It means that there is violence and arson taking
U.S. freight sector signals recession
In the world of traditional metrics of economic activity, there are few indicators that are more important than the volume of freight moving through a nation. Perhaps one of the most notable metrics to quantify these days is the Cass Freight Index, which has been producing data since 1955. The Cass Freight Index – Shipments
Australia’s glaring climate change contradiction
This month, the Albanese government unveiled its 2035 climate targets, which promise to reduce emissions by more than 62% and up to 70% below 2005 levels. The hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investments required to meet Australia’s emissions reduction targets will drive up Australian energy costs and taxes, resulting in further deindustrialisation as
Gold bulls stampede, upside gets gamma violent
From the Market Ear: The 4k magnet Gold continues marching higher. We have been pointing out the similarities with the early 2025 break out for weeks…the triangle, the support from the 50 day, positioning etc. The early 2025 set up saw gold rise some 25% before the euphoria calmed down. A similar move this time