DXY reversed. AUD is printing multiple hammer candles. CNY reopens today after the LNY break. Gold is massively overbought. Dirt having another crack. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk meh. Yields meh. Stocks only go up. If the last few days are an example of Trump tariff objectives, then what has the market to be afraid
Australians have suffered their longest recession in modern history, with real per capita GDP declining for seven consecutive quarters as of Q3 2024. This decline in per capita GDP has been driven by the household sector, where consumption fell for six of the past seven quarters. This week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has
As Trump gets outmaneuvered by both Canada and Mexico, a new front in the trade war opened up against Chyna today which retaliated immediately in kind. Currency markets have reverted almost back to their pre-North American trade war starting points while gold continues to hold at record highs. Meanwhile the latest local consumer confidence figures
I have argued repeatedly that the Albanese government desperately needs the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates to bolster its re-election chances. The record decline in real household incomes and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis have negatively impacted Labor’s polling position. Therefore, Labor needs the RBA to cut interest rates to regain voters’
“Evil” Anna Bligh is to leave the banking lobby after eight years of political profiteering. Former Queensland premier Anna Bligh will retire from the Australian Banking Association after eight years of lobbying for the major banks, a period when she helped restore the reputation of a sector battered by the Hayne royal commission. The ABA
Emperor Xi and his CCP cronies have discovered a new and exciting way of pretending that the Chinese economy is rebalancing to consumption: vouchers. The first of the vouchers was an extra day for the LNY holiday to boost travel. It worked! But they forget to give them a cocktail voucher for when they go
Gallup released a survey in January, conducted across 140 countries with responses from 14,000 people (including 1,000 in Australia), showing that Australians are fed up with unaffordable housing. Only 22% of Australians were satisfied with home availability in 2024, a record low. In contrast, 76% expressed unhappiness, a discontent rarely seen in high-income countries. Only
Greater fools are driving the stock rally. The Market Ear. Cause for concern There are a number of “causes for concern” now when we look at positioning indicators. It has been retail investors that have done the majority of the buying over the last few days. Inflows into equity funds have been close to “manic-like”.
Australia has grown its population by around 8.5 million this century, driven by historically high net overseas migration, most of which is purportedly skilled. However, Australia’s skills shortages are supposedly worse than ever despite the surge in’ skilled’ migration. How could that be? Greg Jericho from The Guardian released research in October 2024 showing that
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday released dwelling approvals data for the month of December, which recorded total approvals of 15,378 in trend terms. As illustrated in the next chart, approvals have rebounded recently, driven by units & apartments. Even so, the 15,378 monthly approvals were 23% below the 20,000 monthly run rate