Macro Afternoon: 10 March 2025
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
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History repeating as hung parliament looms
In the 2010 federal election, the incumbent Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard, won a second term after forming a minority government with three independent MPs. A result similar to the 2010 federal election looks like the most likely outcome of the upcoming federal election. The latest Newspoll for The Australian shows
Bill Kelty tells Chicken Chalmers to stop lying
Labor greybeard, Bill Kelty, has delivered the government, especially Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers, a stinging slap across the face. Former trade union leader and economic trailblazer Kelty, whose work with the Hawke and Keating Labor governments helped usher in two decades of prosperity, described the reality of many Australians’ declining living standards as “political kryptonite”
Australia’s housing affordability crisis deepens
In January, Domain published a series of charts showing that Australia’s housing affordability was the worst in recorded history. The national dwelling value-to-income ratio hit an equal record high of 8.0 in Q3 2024, up from a 20-year average of 6.7. The amount of time taken for the median-income household to save a deposit on
Gas cartel plays dead for election
Wholesale electricity prices have been falling in recent days. However, they are still double year on year! Prices have been easing in the weak demand shoulder season as the gas cartel plays dead going into the election. However, ahead are still some very difficult problems with very severe outcomes. With futures up 25% year on
Cost of living crisis forces Aussies to work multiple jobs
Australians have endured the largest cost-of-living shock in modern history. The following chart deflates the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) official wage price index against the ABS’ cost of living index for employee households. On this measure, Australian real wages in Q4 2024 were tracking 10.1% below the peak at around Q1 2012 levels. The
Is Tech Wreck 2.0 here?
Goldman is unusually bearish. 5 Key Themes to End the Week 1. The Risk of a Prolonged Bear Market: No Crisis, Just Pain The lack of a clear financial crisis means markets won’t experience a rapid, cathartic selloff that forces deleveraging and resets valuations. Instead, the risk is a slow, painful decline over multiple years,
Chinese yawnulus moves on from steel
Via Goldman, the headline numbers and deficit breakdown. The 2025 fiscal targets unveiled during the “Two Sessions” imply the total amount of government bond net issuance quota will increase to RMB11.9tn in 2025 from RMB9.0tn in 2024. According to the 2025 budget report proposal, the MOF expects fiscal revenue growth to slow, but fiscal expenditure
Tariff front running boosts iron ore market
China is in the flush of one last steel export surge, up 6.7% year on year for Jan/Feb. Iron ore fell sharply on supply disruptions. The balance explains the small easing in port stocks of iron ore. It also helps explain tearaway CISA steel out mid-February. But, dead ahead are the tariffs and the export
Macro Morning
Friday night saw the release of the latest US unemployment aka non-farm payroll figures and while they underperformed they came in as expected, giving a relief valve to Wall Street which managed a meagre rally to end the trading week still at a new low. European stocks pulled back but then managed more gains in