Risk markets in Asia are reacting with some trepidation after the Friday night cut by ratings agency Moody on US debt, with all stocks in the red with US Treasury futures also falling. This is all about the burgeoning fiscal deficit problem in the US Congress which is trying again to vote on the Trump
Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA, notes that markets have priced a 95% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting the official cash rate by 0.25% at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. “Both the Q1 25 trimmed mean CPI and the Q1 25 wage price index printed right in line with the
Peter Cook, cross-posted from Pearls & Irritations. If ecological sustainability must be the basis for population policy, as argued by Jenny Goldie, then a vital ingredient for sustainability is water – the essence of life. If population policy requires identifying a desirable population size for Australia in the future, we must consider whether there will be enough
For a short while, anyway, Goldman. Both IMF and Elane (a Chinese shipping data company) provide vessel traffic data categorized by ship type. The IMF has developed a sophisticated algorithm to project export and import volume for major ports in China. While they generate daily series,the data is published weekly with a one-week lag. Elane
This comes straight from the annals of the Department of Redundancy Department. Via Bloomberg: Australia’s Productivity Commission has identified 15 priority reforms to examine in the course of five inquiries it’s conducting for the government to try to boost economic efficiency and raise living standards. The five inquiries being conducted are: Creating a dynamic and resilient economy
You can’t keep a good Titanic up, and there’s no better example than Chinese property, which continues to sink despite Beijing’s next efforts. The price hole ripped into her side is still sucking in water. The iceberg of too high real interest rates is slowly melting, but why buy either of the below when you
China (31.5% in 2023) and India (8.1% share in 2023) are driving the growth in global carbon emissions. The reason is simple: both have an insatiable appetite for coal. The following chart from Oxford Economics on electricity generation sources tells the tale. While the developed world has weaned itself off coal over the past decade,
The Market Ear wraps us up. Fade the rip? “…one of our contrarian trading rules…when >88% of MSCI global stock indices trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages then you sell, and vice-versa; currently 84% of MSCI indices trading above 50dma/200dma”…global stock markets v close to “overbought”…good “fade-the-rip” reminder” (Hartnett) Teflon tech NASDAQ at
Steel is showing the tariff strain. We are entering the year’s weakest seasonal period so iron ore ought to follow. Chinese property is weak. Export volumes have held up. But is it all diversion. Sooner or later, the crashed prices needed to muscle into new markets will flow back up the supply chain. Steel demand
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published data last month revealing that Victorians pay the highest state and local taxes in the country. Victorian state and local government taxes were $6,348 per capita in 2023-24, $654 (11.5%) higher than the state and territory average. Victoria also saw a 40.5% increase in state and local government