Australia is a kind of mind-moulding autocracy in which the words “immigration” and “racist” are interchangeable. At the zenith of this ersatz society sits a central bank that is paid to do one job and one job only: never mention the word “immigration”. In an immigration-led labour market expansion economy, it is therefore entirely predictable
The Market Ear on the machines. —- Volatility compression – extreme edition S&P average stock IV has decreased by 12.6v over the last month. For additional context, the 1-month change in the 10-day moving average of intraday volatility is at the lowest level since COVID and second lowest since 2010. Source: GS Fear evaporated Goldman’s
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has refused to rule out extending the federal government’s energy rebate for a third time. However, he acknowledges that the government is aware that the $6.8 billion rebate must end at some stage, which is why it has been extended for only six months rather than a year. “We only extended it
Westpac summarises the drivel. One area that the RBA had previously pointed to as a reason for not being confident that inflation can be sustained at current levels is the tightness of the labour market. While it still highlighted indicators that suggested remaining tightness, the forecasts for unemployment have been lifted slightly, while those for
Westpac with the note. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.2% in April from 0.5% in March. The above-trend growth pulse that emerged at the start of the year
DXY down. AUD down too. Leads boots again. Oli and gold up. Metals undecided. Miners EM stuck. High yield. Yields stable. Stocks stall. Credit Agricole. Higher long-term Treasury yields and tighter swap spreads have come following Moody’s Ratings downgrade. Moody’s downgraded the US to Aa1 from Aaa and changed the outlookto stable from negative on
I explained last week why Australia’s energy costs will inevitably soar as the nation replaces traditional baseload generation with renewables in pursuit of Labor’s 82% renewable energy target. The reasons for the high cost of renewable energy are straightforward. They depend on the weather; therefore, they are intermittent and have low load factors. Renewables need
Although the macro newsflow was relatively light on overnight it was all about the bond and currency markets as the latest Canadian inflation numbers following yesterday’s cut by the RBA led to further introspection on the trajectory of the ECB, which has led to the USD being pushed back across the board. US sovereign debt
The media release accompanying the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 0.25% cut to the official cash rate (OCR) on Tuesday was a fairly vanilla affair that took a neutral stance. The release noted that risks to inflation have become “more balanced”, that policy is now “somewhat less restrictive”. The RBA also remained “cautious about the
Last year, former federal Treasury official Stephen Anthony warned that Victoria may need a federal “bailout” due to increasing state debt, which reached $27,729 per person in 2023-24. “Victoria is on a suicide mission to record borrowing, just as global interest rates are about to hit 5%”, Anthony warned. “Potholes can’t get filled, emergency departments