The ferrous complex continues to squeeze with seasonality. Previous squeezes in the past year suggest a price cap around $110. Right where Indian exports will surge. Is there anything to it? Not really. So far, we have had excuses such as Chinese property mega-stimulus. Albo grovelling. A new dam. For example: The massive economic stimulus
Last night saw risk markets barely move on a quiet economic calendar or geopolitical catalysts with only the USD having any reactions as continued trade concerns with the Trump regime pushing for a baseline 15-20% tariff on all EU products sending King Dollar down against everything. Wall Street eked out more record highs with minimal
Australia is suffering a generational housing shortage amid historically high immigration-driven population growth and sluggish housing supply. In late 2023, the National Cabinet agreed to a new Housing Accord, which would deliver 1.2 million homes over five years, commencing on 1 July 2024. Australian dwelling approvals, commencements, and completions are currently tracking around 25% (60,000)
As shown by the following chart from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, Australia’s recent productivity growth has been among the worst in the advanced world. Australia’s labour productivity (GDP per hour worked) has experienced virtually zero growth since 2016. Reasons for the productivity decline: I attribute Australia’s poor productivity performance to four main factors. 1)
Asian share markets are quite mixed in the first trading session of the week as concerns over the Trump regimes bullying of the EU in its “negotiations” over the looming August 1st trade deal are spilling over. The USD is losing ground against all the major currency pairs as a result with Yen also gapping
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released CPI inflation data today, which showed that New Zealand inflation lifted further in Q2 to 2.7%. Major bank ASB noted that while the result wasn’t a surprise, “it is an unwelcome development after NZ endured years of high interest rates to tame rampant inflation”. “The last thing New
The state of Victoria’s financial woes is well documented. In 2023-24, the state had the nation’s largest per capita net debt and the lowest credit rating (AA). Per capita state debt was only $3,600 in Labor’s first budget in 2015. It has since climbed to $21,900 and is projected over the budget forward estimates to
Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released monthly data on permanent and long-term arrivals, which suggested that net overseas migration (NOM) may have surged back over the first half of 2025. The 245,900 net arrivals recorded over the first five months of 2025 were the highest on record, surpassing last year’s record of
Iieeeeuuuuuu… Why use an AI when you have the Aussie PM on his knees? The CCP propaganda arm, The Global Times, is cock-a-whoop. Two issues are particularly noteworthy during Albanese’s visit to China, as they have sent a message to the world that Australia is re-balancing its international relationships to assert its core national interests,
The bubble is back. The Market Ear. Basically buying UBS sees CTAs doubling their equity exposure, adding $60-70bln over the next 2 weeks. They are basically buyers in all scenarios, unless SPX turns below 6k. Source: UBS Retail buying UBS on retail buying (proxied by ETF action): 1. Retail investors sold US stocks from mid-April