DXY is down. AUD is up, though the trend is a mess. CNY down. Gold to the moon! Metals mixed. Big bear is still in there. EM yawn. Junk still trending better. Whoa! US short-end yields are breaking down, long sticky. Feeding stocks. So much for bond vigilantes. We’ve been JOLTED instead. The number of
The 2025 federal election campaign saw both sides of politics cynically propose policies to pump homebuyer demand and prices. Both sides also explicitly stated that they want to see Australian house prices rise at a ‘sustainable rate’ from already record-high levels. Neither side genuinely wants to “solve” the housing affordability crisis because that would require
Asian share markets are seeing a broad selloff as the riskoff mood in the wake of bond sales continues to dominate the marketplace as we await Friday’s NFP print from the US. The USD is lifting slightly after being against a wall of selling against the majors but all eyes on are US Treasuries as
New Zealand’s economy and housing market remain in a funk. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Kiwi-GDP nowcasting model suggests that the nation’s GDP may have declined in Q2 2025 by 0.3%. New Zealand’s labour market is also suffering its weakest conditions in a decade outside
As they say, a gas particle gathers no moss. Do they say that? No. But you catch my drift. Global markets for energy are dynamic, and today brings a new development of scale, via AlJazeera. Russia and China have agreed to move forward with a new gas pipeline during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to
The Aussie economy has passed the zenith of its historic government spending splurge as public investment peaks, according to Westpac. Today’s data showed that public investment was the primary drag. As the pipeline of public investment projects turns lower, this is feeding through into weaker activity. This quarter new public investment declined 3.4%qtr to be
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the national accounts for Q2 2025, which revealed stronger than expected growth. Analysts had tipped a 0.4% rise in headline GDP, and the RBA had forecast 0.5% growth. However, a 0.6% rise was recorded, led by household and government spending. Headline GDP grew by 1.8% over the 2024-25
Recently here at MacroBusiness, I explored how during the industrial revolution the investors in the stocks of American railroad companies did not see the huge returns that one might have expected, despite railroads dramatically transforming and boosting the U.S. economy. The piece posed an important question regarding the rise of AI: it’s entirely possible to be
The Market Ear on a bubble whose time has come. Breaking down SPX is breaking below the trend line that has been in place since May. Note we took out the 21 day…and are trading close to the 50 day as of writing. No bueno. Source: LSEG Workspace NASDAQ as well NASDAQ is falling below
Steel prices are in an outright rout. This is the opposite of what the Beijing parade should produce. Yet everybody wants town iron ore with Simndou two months hence? This is fruitcake time. Chinese steel margins are collapsing as inventories pile up. There is only one outcome here. Production must fall, and all ferrous inventories