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How long is the Fed sidelined?

April 7, 2025 - 13:00 -- Admin

The Fed was nasty on Friday. Jerome Powell. While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth. The size and duration of these effects remain uncertain.

Watch credit for the bottom

April 7, 2025 - 12:00 -- Admin

Watch credit for the bottom. It will tell you when we are getting to the kind of economic accident that the Trump administration seems to want. Morgan Stanley. This week’s tariff announcements were more hawkish than expectations and raise recession risks, unless met by negotiations in the very near term. We expect no cuts from

Iron ore double trouble

April 7, 2025 - 11:30 -- Admin

Of all the commodities, iron ore has so far held up the best post-tariffs. This appears to be a function of the long-established Pavlovian response that economic shocks equal more construction stimulus and iron ore demand in China. But is that the case this time? China has never successfully weathered a recessionary economic shock without

Albo batteries save rich from gas cartel

April 7, 2025 - 11:00 -- Admin

Albo has gone for household batteries. The Australian. Taxpayers will contribute $4000 for an average household battery installation under a $2.3 billion election commitment by Anthony Albanese, with Labor promising the policy will push electricity prices down for “everyone”. The Prime Minister will on Sunday make a speech in the Brisbane electorate of Griffith and

High immigration makes Australians poorer

April 7, 2025 - 10:30 -- Admin

Last week, the ABC published the following table showing Australia’s most valuable goods exports: Since Australia doesn’t manufacture much anymore, mining, energy, and agricultural goods comprise virtually all of Australia’s goods exports. All of these exports are produced in regional Australia, not the capital cities. The only services exports of note are education and tourism-related.

Lunatic RBA to cut 50bps?

April 7, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

The panic is on. “Economists” are backflipping on interest rates. Hoocoodanode? The poll found 29 out of 40 economists forecast the cash rate to fall by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.85 per cent in May. ANZ, Barrenjoey, and HSBC brought forward their timing after the US president unveiled aggressive tariffs on trading

Blood in the streets

April 7, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

Blood in the streets. The Market Ear. $5 trillion gone The S&P 500 saw its worst two-day plunge since March 2020 in a sellof that slashed over $5 trillion in value. Source: Econovis 2nd worst ever The Nasdaq Composite is now down 19% year-to-date for its 2nd worst start to a year (through 64 trading

Macro Morning

April 7, 2025 - 09:00 -- Admin

The bath of blood on risk markets continues to spill over with Wall Street falling 6% across the board on Friday night with more carnage expected here on the open of the new trading week in Asia. The latest US jobs figures came in better than expected but were roundly ignored as everything but the

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