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NSW by-elections – how similar were postals, pre-polls and election day?

February 21, 2022 - 16:06 -- Admin

Saturday saw the first counting of postal votes, a week on from the four by-elections in New South Wales. The postal vote data in all four by-elections confirmed the pre-existing voting trends. In three by-elections, the leading candidate outperformed their pre-existing lead on pre-poll votes, while the Liberal Party did better on postal votes in Bega but still lost the postal vote, thus increasing the lead of the Labor candidate.

NSW by-elections – what comes next?

February 13, 2022 - 10:49 -- Admin

Last night’s counting for the four New South Wales state by-elections probably set some records for the smallest proportion of the total vote to be counted.

There remains a large number of postal votes to be counted, along with quite a few pre-poll votes. In this post I thought I would run through the coming timeline, what I expect is left to be counted and some early trends that we can see about how the vote broke down.

NSW by-elections live

February 12, 2022 - 18:09 -- Admin

6:43pm – We have five booths reporting from Bega. So far I’ve been able to match four to their 2019 equivalents, and the turnout drops are:

  • Bermagui – 83.8%
  • Merimbula – 59.9%
  • Tanja – 56.8%
  • Towamba – 45.3%

In Monaro:

  • Captains Flat – 41.9%
  • Letchworth – 59.2%
  • Wamboin – 58.6%

In Strathfield:

  • Strathfield South PS – 63.3%

In Willoughby

NSW by-elections – postal votes surge

February 11, 2022 - 10:00 -- Admin

There is one unique feature of tomorrow’s by-elections in four NSW state electorates: postal ballots have been sent to every registered voter. Standard practice requires voters to request a ballot, but the problems with iVote at the December council elections prompted the NSW Electoral Commission to try something new.

The NSWEC has been publishing data each day on how many people in each electorate have either voted at pre-poll or returned their postal vote.

Victoria 2022 election guide now live

January 28, 2022 - 10:30 -- Admin

I have recently completed my latest election guide, covering the 2022 state election in Victoria, which is due for 26 November.

The guide features profiles of all 88 Legislative Assembly electorates and the eight Legislative Council regions. Each guide features a number of maps along with results tables and the history of each electorate. I haven’t yet added any candidates, but the rest of the guide is complete, and as usual includes a comments section for each contest.

Countbacks arrive in New South Wales

January 7, 2022 - 11:00 -- Admin

A new feature of the NSW local government electoral system is being introduced right now across many NSW councils, finally implementing a legislative change made in 2014. This change will see vacancies filled by countback of the original ballot papers, rather than a by-election. While this is an improvement, the reform is limited in its application so that it won’t apply to all vacancies across the state.

Proportionality and magnitude at the NSW council election

January 6, 2022 - 11:00 -- Admin

I keep banging on about the importance of magnitude in determining how elections work. The number of councillors elected for each ward at the NSW council election has a major influence on each council’s party system and how votes translate into seats. Indeed the voting system has an influence on which parties run and how well they poll, and thus seats have an influence on votes, not just the other way around.