While I’ve been focused on the NSW state election I’ve missed the start of the Northern Territory’s redistribution of the 25 electorates for the local Legislative Assembly. This is the third in a series of three posts analysing the prospects for redistributions, with the last two covering the Australian Capital Territory and Western Australia.
Articles from The Tally Room
While we’re all focused on the federal election and the recent NSW state election, a number of redistributions have been kicked off for Western Australian state elections and the territory Legislative Assemblies in the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory. I’ve already analysed the likely outcomes for the ACT redistribution, and I’ll be back later this week with an analysis of the NT redistribution.
I’ve been compiling booth maps of a bunch of the closest races. I have two more to post for Coogee and Upper Hunter. I don’t have a lot to say about these maps, but wanted to share them.
Ben is joined by Stewart Jackson and Sinead Canning to wrap up the NSW election result (and discuss the ongoing upper house count), the role of One Nation preferences in the federal election, and the likelihood of the federal election being called this week.
Thanks to 2SER radio in Sydney for the use of their studio.
We’re now in the second of three weeks of counting for the New South Wales Legislative Council and we’re getting a decent chunk of votes counted.
As of Monday evening, over a million votes have been counted in the check count (the one that includes below-the-line votes and all groups’ above-the-line votes). I estimate this is about 21.6% of the final count, assuming the same turnout we saw in 2015.
Lismore has turned out to be one of Labor’s only gains at the recent state election. Labor outpolled the Greens on primary votes by 1.42%, which is expected to be enough to hold on after preferences, producing a two-party-preferred outcome of 51.5%.
The neighbouring seat of Ballina was also interesting, although it didn’t end up being close. Greens MP Tamara Smith increased her margin to 5%, thanks to a 1.8% swing.
6:00 – Polls have just closed across New South Wales. Join me as we cover tonight’s results.
Polls have just opened across New South Wales. This post is just a placeholder and open thread to post comments during the day. I may post a few updates here if there are developments.
There are eight seats covering the north coast of New South Wales, stretching from Myall Lakes to Tweed.
Seven of these seats are held by the Nationals, while the eighth seat was won off the Nationals by the Greens in 2015.
I’ve added a new dataset to my data repository, as an exclusive for website donors, with the results of the 2011 NSW state election.
This dataset covers both the lower house and upper house, including the full list of polling places (with latitudes, longitudes and addresses) and the full list of candidates, as well as voting figures at the booth and seat level.