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WA state redistribution – starting numbers

April 5, 2019 - 08:12 -- Admin

While we’re all focused on the federal election and the recent NSW state election, a number of redistributions have been kicked off for Western Australian state elections and the territory Legislative Assemblies in the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory. I’ve already analysed the likely outcomes for the ACT redistribution, and I’ll be back later this week with an analysis of the NT redistribution.

NSW 2019 – upper house count, week two

April 2, 2019 - 09:53 -- Admin

We’re now in the second of three weeks of counting for the New South Wales Legislative Council and we’re getting a decent chunk of votes counted.

As of Monday evening, over a million votes have been counted in the check count (the one that includes below-the-line votes and all groups’ above-the-line votes). I estimate this is about 21.6% of the final count, assuming the same turnout we saw in 2015.

NSW 2019 – the results map for the north coast

April 1, 2019 - 16:10 -- Admin

Lismore has turned out to be one of Labor’s only gains at the recent state election. Labor outpolled the Greens on primary votes by 1.42%, which is expected to be enough to hold on after preferences, producing a two-party-preferred outcome of 51.5%.

The neighbouring seat of Ballina was also interesting, although it didn’t end up being close. Greens MP Tamara Smith increased her margin to 5%, thanks to a 1.8% swing.

New dataset – NSW 2011

February 21, 2019 - 08:49 -- Admin

I’ve added a new dataset to my data repository, as an exclusive for website donors, with the results of the 2011 NSW state election.

This dataset covers both the lower house and upper house, including the full list of polling places (with latitudes, longitudes and addresses) and the full list of candidates, as well as voting figures at the booth and seat level.