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THE BLOT REPORT
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 17:24
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After the Liberal Party’s crushing defeat in the weekend’s federal election, it wasn’t going to be long before the recriminations started. However, it is probably useful to go back to the election result to see how extraordinary it was. It is the first time since World War 2 that a first term Australian federal government has had a swing towards it rather than away from it. The swing against such first term governments at their next election has varied from 0.3% to 4.6%, and averages about 1%. In the weekend’s election, the swing toward the Albanese government looks likely to be about 4.5%1. |
Your Democracy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 17:19
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The speakers discuss the ongoing Ukraine war, criticizing U.S. involvement and framing it as a geopolitical trap for former President Trump, who they argue should have immediately withdrawn all support to Ukraine upon taking office. They believe that doing so would have ended the war early, with Russia still achieving most of its goals. They argue that Russia was always willing to negotiate for a neutral, demilitarized, and "denazified" Ukraine, but the West ignored this. |
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 16:22
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AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 The post Macro Afternoon: 5 May 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
George Monbiot
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 16:09
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A remarkable before-and-after experiment provides conclusive evidence: the BBC favours the right and excludes the left. By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 1st May 2025 |
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 14:50
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Your Democracy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 14:11
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As trade tensions flared between the world’s largest economies, communication between the United States and China has been so shaky that the two superpowers cannot even agree on whether they are talking at all. |
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 13:30
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By Stephen Saunders The sanctimonious left-elite is euphoric, confident that Labor is set to inflict six more years of population replacement, energy malfeasance, and housing distress. When Labor unaccountably lost Election 2019, inhouse reviewers Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill summarised the problems in 500 words. The key message: “Labor should position itself as a party |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 13:00
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The Q4 2024 national accounts reported that Australian real per capita household consumption had fallen for eight consecutive quarters: This decline in consumption was in response to an 8% decline in real per capita household disposable incomes: It was also in response to the recent surge in mortgage and rental payments: Westpac has released survey The post Cautious Aussies choose saving over spending appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 12:30
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The ferrous complex struggles on. Flat steel demand is solid. Long not so good . Production is OK. But the trade war is yet to fully strike, including direct tariffs upon steel, and the steel production cuts that come with both, Not out of the woods here yet. The post Iron ore struggles on appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 12:00
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Over the past decade, the Liberal government in Canada has run the nation’s biggest immigration program in history, which culminated in a record 1.2 million net migrants arriving in the 2023-24 financial year. This surge in population created a record shortfall of housing, as illustrated below: As a result, rental vacancy rates collapsed to record The post Canada reboots mass migration policy appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 11:30
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The Department of Home Affairs has released temporary visa data for Q1 2025, showing a record 2,541,651 temporary visas on issue in Australia (excluding visitors). This figure was around 120,000 higher than the year prior and about 580,000 higher than Q1 2020, before the pandemic. As illustrated below, the surge in temporary visas since Q1 The post International students ruthlessly exploit bridging visas appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 11:00
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If Albo’s idiots have any brains at all, they will immediately spend their Trump windfall of political capital on embracing Peter Dutton’s gas reservation policies. Returning Australian gas to eastern states’ use is essential to stabilising inflation, the energy transition, and industrial growth, all KPIs for the renewed government. In the meantime, there is potentially |
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 10:30
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The Albanese government was the worst government in modern Australian history. It is a: routine liar political hack over national interest policymaker housing calamity energy price catastrophe industrial horror story budget wrecker wages killer living standards destroyer immigration obsessive China groveller. The nation just handed this black hole government the largest blank cheque anybody can |
Your Democracy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 10:26
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I’m a proud lonely weed In the middle of the median strip A small crack for me to creep Through the concrete decrepit
I am an unwanted plant in the wrong place With insignificant blooms and ugly face So the humans say but I think I’m pretty And prolific too short-lived unfortunately Some call me dandelion or pissenlit Others insist on Taraxacum officinale |
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 10:00
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The latest rental affordability report from PropTrack revealed that at the end of 2024, Australian households could afford to rent the smallest share of advertised rentals since at least 2008, when records began. The primary cause of the collapse in rental affordability is the extreme growth of rents, which have risen by 48% nationally since The post Aussie landlords gain from renters’ pain appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
xkcd.com
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 10:00
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 09:40
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Renew Economy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 09:32
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 09:30
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The Market Ear on the short squeeze. Most since August S&P 500 +18% from the lows 4 weeks ago. More than 88% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 20 day moving average, the most since August. However, many sentiment & positioning indicators are still massively lagging, which would indicate room for more buying. The post The short squeeze rips appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 09:14
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Following the 2022 federal election, the Australian Greens declared themselves the “third force” in Australian politics after picking up 12.2% of the primary vote and winning four federal seats: During this election campaign, the Greens salivated at the prospect of forming a minority government with Labor whereby it could force its policy agenda. The outcome The post A grim election for the Australian Greens appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
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Your Democracy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 08:42
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It seems to me that Trump has gone a little crazy by his 100 days of presidency. On paper, he did very well, but he He clearly had no idea the extent of Zelensky's idiocy and the hatred of European idiots for himself. |
Renew Economy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 07:30
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 07:00
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Goldman wraps a Q1 dud. Nominal retail sales rose 0.3%mom in March, broadly in line with expectations (GSe: +0.2%mom, BBG: 0.4%mom). That said, the details were softer, with ex-food sales broadly flat for a second consecutive month. The quarterly data were also weaker than expected, with volumes flat in 1Q2025 against expectations for an ongoing The post RBA to cut as retail slumps again appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Your Democracy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 06:55
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Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s ascent to the presidency is a landmark achievement for Namibia and a beacon of progress for gender equality in Africa. |
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John Quiggin
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 05:17
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Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here. |
Your Democracy
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 04:55
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Two travellers discovered on the beach An Oyster, carried thither by the sea. 'Twas eyed with equal greediness by each; Then came the question whose was it to be. One, stooping down to pounce upon the prize, Was thrust away before his hand could snatch it. "Not quite so quickly," his companion cries; "If you've a claim here, I've a claim to match it; The first that saw it has the better right |
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MacroBusiness
Monday, May 5, 2025 - 00:10
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Australian households are suffering their longest recession in generations. The Q4 national accounts, released in March, revealed that real per capita household consumption fell for an eighth consecutive quarter. A steep decline in household incomes is behind the fall in consumption. As illustrated below, real per capita household consumption had declined by around 8% from its |
The Tally Room
Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 19:00
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Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of yesterday’s Australian federal election, which produced Labor’s best result since 1943. We talk about the close seats, how multi-party politics is transforming local electorate contests and what is likely to happen in the Senate. |
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THE BLOT REPORT
Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 17:47
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I have written several pieces about the Liberal Party branches being taken over by the religious in most of the Australian states. It seems to have started in Victoria1,2, and quickly spread to other states with Western Australia2,3, Queensland2 and South Australia4,5 having fallen to the religious. The only holdouts seem to be Tasmania6 and New South Wales7. |
Renew Economy
Sunday, May 4, 2025 - 16:54
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