Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary
Your Democracy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 17:37 Source

Creating negotiating leverage? Trump and Bessent are delusional. Russia already knows that there is, “no daylight” between the US and Ukraine. Were it not for US actions to quash previous negotiations, to supply weapons, ammunition and intelligence, and to fund Ukraine’s government, this war would be over. If Trump thinks that this gives him leverage to pressure Putin to end the war, then it is just one more example of Trump’s detachment from reality. 

 

Read more Views: 235
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 16:07 Source

AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225                    

The post Macro Afternoon: 6 May 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 232
Renew Economy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 15:39 Source
Read more Views: 234
Cheeseburger Gothic Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 15:36 Source

I spent most of the election weekend down in Sydney, finishing a book in my hotel room and giving a talk at that architecture conference.

It went very well, thank you.

Both the talk—and, of course, the election.

It had been a while since I’d spent much time in the centre of Sydney. When I go down, I usually stay out at Bondi—my old hood. But I hadn’t been in the city proper for any serious stretch of time since the light rail went into George Street, and I was really surprised by how much of a difference it’s made to the CBD.

Like, completely transformed it.

Read more Views: 225
Renew Economy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 15:36 Source
Read more Views: 225
Renew Economy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 15:33 Source
Read more Views: 171
Renew Economy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 15:17 Source

Read more Views: 175
Renew Economy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 14:43 Source
Read more Views: 173
Renew Economy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 14:40 Source
Read more Views: 186
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 14:00 Source

I reported last week on the latest results from Realestate.co.nz, showing that the national average asking price of homes listed on the site declined for the second consecutive month in April to $851,746, down 3.8% from $884,995 in February. The decline in prices was attributed to a growing glut of homes listed for sale, which

The post New Zealand’s house price crash steepens appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 163
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 13:30 Source

JKM LNG futures are still signalling gasmageddon for Australia later this year. Adjusted for an AUD at 70 cents, plus regasification costs, imported LNG will still be coming in at about $19Gj versus $12Gj today. The gas cartel will respond to LNG imports by restricting supply so that global prices become the marginal price setter.

The post A second chance for Jim Chalmers to prevent gasmageddon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 186
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 13:00 Source

The ferrous complex is still struggling. Forgive some of the delayed pricing on the chart. SGX is sitting around $96. The latest CISA output data looks more like 2022 than 2024. Though I have to caution that this series has broken down versus official output somewhat this year. The challenges remain. Goldman. The Chinese government’s

The post Iron ore enters the danger zone appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 164
Renew Economy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 12:50 Source
Read more Views: 167
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 12:30 Source

The first term of the Albanese government saw net overseas migration to Australia surge to a record high. It also saw temporary visa numbers balloon nearly 500,000 higher than the pre-pandemic peak: Total international student enrolments also hit a record high of nearly 1.1 million at the end of 2024, nearly 250,000 higher than the

The post Indian students and migration agents celebrate Labor victory appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 151
Your Democracy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 12:28 Source

Read more Views: 171
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 12:00 Source

From Goldman: From a macro perspective, we leave our forecasts for Australia unchanged given the outcome was not a surprise and the ALP’spost-Budget policy announcements have been fairly modest (0.0-0.1% of GDP). We note most of the policies announced in the Budget on 25 March, including income tax cuts for households, have already been legislated.

The post Labor win immaterial for rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 179
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The following graphic from CoreLogic shows Australia’s housing affordability was the worst on record at the end of 2024. In particular, the dwelling value to income ratio was a record high 8.0 as of 31 December 2024, and the percentage of income required to service a median new mortgage was a record high 50.5%. A

The post Another ‘extend and pretend’ mortgage arrives in Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 187
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 11:00 Source

NAB chief economist Sally Auld has predicted heavy interest rate cuts this year, beginning with a 0.50% cut at the 20 May meeting. “We expect the RBA to cut by 50bps in May, followed by 25bps in July, August, November and February”, Auld wrote in her May update. “With the current setting of monetary policy

The post Will the RBA rain rate cuts? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 187
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The Market Ear on the rally nobody wanted. Now what? SPX is hitting some sort of short term trend line here. We moved above the 50 day, but are still slightly below the 200 day. The death cross is still in place, but as we pointed out a few weeks ago, last time we got

The post Now what for stocks? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 180
Your Democracy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 10:27 Source

Eighty-nine. That’s the magic number. It will take at least 89 cardinals to elect Pope Francis’ successor. [The author has returned to UCA News after a year away].

That’s the two-thirds supermajority of the 133 men who will enter the Sistine Chapel on 7 May for the largest conclave in history. It would have been even larger had two other cardinal-electors not been too ill to participate.

 

Read more Views: 174
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Westpac published the following chart showing that the average minimum mortgage repayment has surged since 2022. “Over the two years to January 2024, the average minimum repayment increased by 42.2%, or about $754, while average incomes grew just 8.5% (or $641)”, Westpac noted. CBA also published the following chart showing that average loan repayments have

The post There’s no way out for Australian renters appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 168
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is struggling mightily to get anywhere. AUD follows EUR. Lead boots plod on. Got to be quick to grab gold these days. Oil in all sorts. Metals no bueno for growth. Big miners perfect down channel. Life for EM? Not if credit has its way. Fed cuts are disappearing. Stocks no likee. AUD is

The post Australian dollar Europe’s new super-currency appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 158
The Tally Room Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 09:15 Source

At the time of writing on Monday evening, there appear to be 17 close seats worth following over the next few days.

By my reckoning there are three types of seats worth watching:

Read more Views: 165
Your Democracy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 09:10 Source

The federal election result carries some hard-won lessons. The overarching lesson for the Liberals is to accept that they’re just not very good at politics.

A fundamental failure: They’ve been suffering a shrinking share of women’s votes since 1996. But the evidence shows they prefer to keep the boys’ club intact even if it pushes them into extinction.

 

BY Peter Hartcher (SMH)

 

Read more Views: 180
Renew Economy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 08:26 Source
Read more Views: 178
Renew Economy Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 08:19 Source
Read more Views: 167
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Exorbitant lot prices are a significant factor against new home sales and construction. Consider the following charts taken primarily from the 2025 Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) State of the Land Report. The first chart shows that the median lot price has risen strongly since the beginning of the pandemic across all major housing

The post Australia’s land price bubble chokes housing supply appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 180
MacroBusiness Tuesday, May 6, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Over the past decade, the Australian economy has recorded some of the poorest productivity growth in the world and the nation’s poorest productivity growth on record. Last week, I presented five reasons why Australia’s productivity growth has declined, namely: The mining boom of the 2000s and the associated surge in the Australian dollar contributed to

The post The root cause of Australia’s productivity collapse appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Read more Views: 218
Renew Economy Monday, May 5, 2025 - 21:18 Source
Read more Views: 225
Your Democracy Monday, May 5, 2025 - 18:23 Source

Arkansas GOP Senator Tom Cotton is just ITCHING for a war with Iran. In a recent congressional hearing Cotton pointedly asked President Donald Trump's nominee for chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine if he is prepared to propose bombing Iran as an option to the President. Cotton also mocked antiwar voices who suggest that our foreign policy is leading us into yet another “endless war.”

Read more Views: 197

Pages