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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 16:00 Source

The uneasy start to the trading week continues as markets weigh up the recent EU and Mexican tariff letters from the Trump regime while also awaiting tonight’s US CPI print that is sure to define risk for the rest of the month. The USD was up slightly after the weekend gap but is stalling out

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 14:00 Source

In Q1 2025, New Zealand’s economy unexpectedly grew by 0.8%, surpassing the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 0.4%. However, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, New Zealand’s GDP still declined by 0.7% year on year. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded by keeping the official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 3.25%

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The Market Ear on more possible buyers. What’s not to like…? Equities may be at all-time highs, but positioning and sentiment still don’t scream euphoria. With neutral fund flows, massive sidelined cash, and no real signs of exuberance, the setup supports a potential melt-up — especially if CTAs, volatility traders, and retail all step in.

The post The bubble can inflate appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 13:00 Source

During the GFC, the U.S. state of Texas emerged relatively unscathed. To get a handle on the relative performance of the Texas housing market during this era, we’ll also be looking at the Texas economy, labor market, and foreclosure rates, as well as some commentary from academia. A Bit Of Background – The Lone Star

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Does anybody recall “Pig Iron Bob”. Sir Robert Menzies’s pejorative moniker that he took to the grave? The name sprang from the Dalfram Dispute: In 1938, Australian waterside workers refused to load pig iron onto the ship Dalfram, destined for Japan, which was then at war with China. This was due to the workers’ concerns that

The post Pig iron Bob returns from the grave appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers is already plotting your next power bill shock. You are currently enjoying a big shock, and it will double by year-end as the Chalmers’ Ukraine War subsidies roll off. Is there any hope of avoiding these? None. By year’s end, your power bill will have nearly doubled from 2025. Albo’s $12Gj

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, July 15, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Or is that behind? The market has flown the coop on yawnulus hopes. June was a better month for iron ore imports in China and a worse month for steel exports. I don’t expect the latter to hold up through H2. Meanwhile, yawnulus hopes are likely overblown. Goldman. Property market stimulus? In recent days, we

The post Iron ore superboom ahead? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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