The Market Ear on equity internals. A zero-sum doughnut “Getting a doughnut” in bonus is what all junior investment bankers fear. Somewhat common in 2002 and 2003 and very common in 2008. Probably very rare in today’s evergreen bull. Separate from bonuses, it was striking to us this Saturday morning when we looked at our
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Over the last year in particular, the impact of international students on the nation’s rental market has sparked significant controversy. The debate has prompted a wide range of papers and reports on the issue, with the quality varying dramatically. In the July Reserve Bank bulletin, the denizens of Martin Place shared their perspective on the
Government-funded jobs have artificially fueled Australia’s jobs boom over the past two years. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, around 80% of jobs created over the past two years have been in the non-market sector, which is reliant on government funding. The non-market sector generated around 658,000 jobs between Q1 2023 and
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The first attempt to isolate a pancreatic extract by means of which the levels of blood glucose could be normalised in dogs was described by a Romanian researcher called Nicolae Paulescu1, but his experiments were interrupted by the First World War and were never acknowledged appropriately. However, after the war, in 1921, a young surgeon named Frederick Banting and his assistant Charles Best, from the University of Toronto, worked out how to remove insulin from a dog’s pancreas.
Last week, Statistics New Zealand reported that the nation’s unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in Q2 2025, the highest rate since Q4 2016. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, New Zealand’s underemployment rate also surged, suggesting significant surplus capacity in the labour market. The rise in New Zealand’s labour underutilisation rate comes
When I first mapped out the latest (and last) return to the Axis of Time universe, I thought I could wrap it up neatly in three books. One tight trilogy, finishing in November this year. Job done.
Hmmm. Yeah, nah. That’s… not going to happen.
Earlier this year, economist Chris Murphy noted that the historical effective average income tax rate in the first two decades of this century was 23%. Even with stage three income tax cuts worth around $23 billion per year, Murphy warned that bracket creep would lift the average tax rate by two percentage points to 25%
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With a few elections finishing up, I have now made a number of additions to the Tally Room’s data repository.
Australia currently has the highest share of temporary migrants and international students as a percentage of our population in the advanced world. The latest temporary visa data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that there were a record 2,460,000 temporary migrants in Australia (excluding visitors) in Q2 2025. This figure was up a whopping
Friday night saw most stock markets rise including the NASDAQ which put in another record high despite obvious concerns that asset prices are overextended, but traders are betting on forthcoming cuts from the Federal Reserve amongst others in the battle against the Trump regime’s tariffs. The USD was mixed or lower against the majors although
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DXY was uncertain Friday night. AUD too. Lead boots are stalled. Gold is sniffing Fed capitulation. Oil is sniffing Ukraine peace. Metals are trading DXY. The big bear is intact. EM trying again. But junk stalled. As yields popped, sniffing the opposite of gold. The bubble expands. This week, the big report is the US
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ANZ has a hilarious cash rate analysis today. It has been, and remains, one of the most hawkish forecasters. We expect a 25bp rate cut from the RBA’s 11–12 August Monetary Policy Board meeting. The ‘no change’ decision in July showed the Board does not see itself as under pressure to cut the cash rate
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By Lucinda Jerogin, Associate Economist at CBA It was a quiet week domestically with the ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator surprised to the downside, rising by 0.5% in June to be 4.8% higher annually. Australia’s goods trade balance printed at $5.4bn in June. Offshore, the BoE cut the bank rate by 25bp to 4.0% as
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