If you’ve been following my live blog, you would have seen that the preference count in the Tasmanian state election finished on Saturday, with the count in Bass being in doubt right up until the end.
Most seats ended up going to the candidates who were expected to win, with just a few exceptions. The parties and candidates in the lead ended up winning every seat in Braddon, Franklin and Lyons. There are two exceptions, and in this post I will explore how those preference counts played out, with the help of graphs.
Goldman with the note. For much of the week, our Dollar views were on the wrong side of market moves, but the substantial revisions to the employment situation should, in turn, revise the emerging narrative that the FX reaction to tariffs has changed again. On the tariff narrative, we see three key aspects to our
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Well that was an interesting Friday night with the much anticipated non-farm payroll AKA US unemployment print shocking to the downside, with further revisions to prior month prints finally revealing the impact of the Trump regime’s tariff on the domestic economy. Coupled with the passing of the August 1st tariff “deadline” and King Trump spitting
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Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
Very much in the news with the genocide in Gaza is the philosophy or ideology of Zionism and attempts by pro-Israel lobby groups to conflate antisemitism with antizionism, with the bogus ‘report’ to the Australian government by Jillian Segal being a case in point1.
At the end of 2024, CoreLogic (now Cotality) reported that Australia’s housing affordability—both to purchase and rent—was the worst on record, as illustrated by the graphic below. Home prices relative to incomes, the percentage of income required to service a mortgage, the number of years taken to save a deposit, and the percentage of income
Thanks to the government’s draconian new anti-protest order, it’s almost impossible to tell whether you are or are not breaking the law.
By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 30th July 2025
I packed a toothbrush, books and a notepad in a small rucksack, took my laptop from the house and hid it, gave my phone to a friend to look after and put a “bust card” (lawyers’ details and legal advice) in my back pocket. I wasn’t certain I would be arrested, but I wanted to be ready. Then I stepped, with other, much braver people into a legal labyrinth.
Prefabricated housing is often touted as a solution to Australia’s housing affordability crisis. This week, 9 News ran an advertorial on Australia’s budding prefabricated housing industry, which it heralded as “a potential new dawn for Australia’s housing crisis”. These homes, which can be constructed in 10 to 12 weeks and can be “generally installed in one
What do you think happens when you try to manage a narcissist with a narcissist? Both pretend the other does not exist. AFR. Leavitt said of the country’s 18 largest trading partners, two-thirds had a deal. Australia is among the huge majority of countries that have not yet struck a deal and is facing the
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Goldman wraps the EOFY bump in retail sales. Nominal retail sales rose 1.2%mom in June, above expectations (GSe:+0.9%mom, BBG: 0.5%mom). The quarterly data were also firmer than expectations, with volumes rising 0.3%qoq in 2Q 2025 (GSe: -0.3%qoq, BBG:+0.1%qoq). That said, the acceleration in volumes growth was driven by a rebound in Queensland following flood-related weakness