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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 13:42 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 13:30 Source

TS Lombard with the note. Trump delivered on campaign promises applying a 54% (34% “reciprocal” and 20% fentanyl) tariff rate to imports from China. The move could impact 1.5-2ppt of China GDP in 2025. How does China respond? Strong fiscal, moderate monetary, passive retaliation–for now. We downgrade our growth forecast by 20bps to 4.5% (always

The post How will China respond to Trump tariffs? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 13:10 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 13:06 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Last week’s federal budget revealed that the cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) will reach $50.8 billion next financial year, exceeding the $51 billion allocated to the defence budget. The cost of the NDIS is also projected to reach $63 billion by mid-2029. The growth of the NDIS is the key driver behind

The post NDIS will continue to drive job growth appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 12:42 Source
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The Tally Room Friday, April 4, 2025 - 12:30 Source

With a hung parliament looking very likely at the upcoming federal election, there has been quite a lot of looking back at the last hung parliament in 2010.

Amongst other elements, there has been some parallels drawn between the experience of the crossbenchers in 2010 and how the current crossbench could jump if they find themselves in a position to decide who forms government this year.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 12:30 Source

The ABC has lost the plot entirely. The relationship between Peter Dutton and resources billionaire Gina Rinehart has soured over the Coalition leader’s plan to force energy giants to sell gas into the domestic market at a likely loss. The ABC also understands that Ms Rinehart’s enthusiasm for Mr Dutton has waned in recent weeks

The post ABC horrified Dutton not Gina’s gas toy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 12:00 Source

This week, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) released data on new house sales, which continued to disappoint. As illustrated below, the number of private new home sales fell by 0.6% in February and has shown little movement in two and a half years. Moreover, as shown by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro below, new house

The post What’s stopping new home construction? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The ferrous jaws closed somewhat with all commodities last night. Chinese steel demand is pretty meek, according to MySteel. Production is a bit better but won’t be as export markets dump with tariffs. There’s a lot of front-loading that’s been done. And now for a demand hole on the other side of it.

The post Iron ore shoved towards demand cliff appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 11:24 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 11:22 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 11:18 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 11:15 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 11:10 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 11:00 Source

It kind of crashed last night. We are once again at the pesky $70 Brent support level. Surely, this time, it breaKS. The key is this. Bloomberg. In a video conference on Thursday, the coalition of crude producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia was expected to simply remind errant members to respect their output

The post Oil wipeout some relief appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Friday, April 4, 2025 - 11:00 Source

We haven't actually seen a star fall in since we invented telescopes, but I have a list of ones I'm really hoping are next.

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Your Democracy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 10:37 Source

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reassured NATO member states that Washington remains committed to the military bloc, while insisting that members must drastically increase spending on their militaries.

Rubio made the remarks at NATO’s foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels on Thursday.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor defended the Coalition’s proposed East Coast gas reservation policy in a National Press Club Q&A on Wednesday. Taylor argued that requiring gas exporters to redirect a proportion of their output to the domestic market will result in the price of gas falling below $10 per gigajoule for all households and businesses.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 10:00 Source

The Australian reported that international student visas have “dived” amid de facto caps implemented by the Albanese government. Data compiled from the Department of Home Affairs shows that the number of student visa applications in the first two months of 2025 was tracking significantly below the levels of 2023 and 2024. The number of student

The post International student numbers must be managed down appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The Market Ear with the charts. The big one SPX is approaching the huge trend line that has been in place since Covid lows. Source: Refinitiv No… …nothing good happens below the 200 day moving average. SPX has not traded this much below the 200 day in a very long time. The “light” death cross

The post Stocks smashed appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 09:00 Source

A bath of blood overnight on all risk markets with the NASDAQ dropping 6% while the S&P500 lost nearly 5% as bond markets surged on a rush to safety and the USD was hit on all fronts with undollars lifting 2% or more against what was “King” Dollar before wannabe King Don upended the global

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 07:59 Source

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 07:19 Source

DXY was pulverised. Which held AUD up, though not against EUR. CNY was hit. Oil crashed as OPEC decided to pump. The copper bubble goes “pop”. Base metals head for hard landing. Big miners, big damage. EM meh. Junk breaking at last. Yields are in free fall, but a long way to go to make

The post Australian dollar stands tall as stocks crash appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 07:13 Source

Trump’s ‘sledgehammer’ approach may cause trade wars – financial analystThe US president is applying primitive tactics in both the economic and political issues he’s dealing with, Henry Johnston tells RT

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 07:00 Source

Australia has traditionally had a gaping trade deficit with the United States. The following table from Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) shows that the United States exported (A$88.2b) more than double what it imported (A$37.5b) from Australia in 2023-24. On Wednesday, the Trump Administration levied reciprocal tariffs against all nations. The Trump

The post The irony of US tariffs on Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, April 4, 2025 - 06:29 Source

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged Washington’s trading partners not to retaliate against President Donald Trump’s latest set of tariffs.

Trump on Wednesday announced reciprocal tariffs on exports from countries around the world, part of what he has branded his ‘Liberation Day’ plan, raising fears of a global trade war.

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MacroBusiness Friday, April 4, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The YIMBY movement claims that the leading solution to Australia’s housing affordability crisis is to rezone our suburbs for high-rise apartment developments. Their argument consistently overlooks evidence suggesting that blanketing cities with high-rise apartment buildings often does not result in more affordable housing. The classic counterargument is illustrated by Vancouver, Canada, which underwent a complete

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MacroBusiness Thursday, April 3, 2025 - 16:00 Source

As Trump makes one of the most retarded economic decisions of all times with his blanket tariffs (even on uninhabited islands, but not Russia curiously), in effect self-sanctioning the USA from global trade, risk markets have done their fair share of pearl clutching and crystal ball gazing to wonder if stagflation, recession or something else

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Thursday, April 3, 2025 - 14:53 Source

The initiation of mass firings of over 20,000 scientists and public health workers at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) marks a historic turning point in the collapse of American democracy and the Trump administration’s efforts to establish a fascist dictatorship in the United States.

 

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