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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The NAB survey yesterday was a shocker. There is nothing good on that table. Worse, the Aussie economy is supposed to be going through a hand-off from fading government spending to a rising consumer. Somebody forgot to tell the latter as retail fell off a cliff. In other words, the economy has reverted to a

The post Stupid RBA has killed the consumer appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 10:00 Source

DXY weak but holding. The AUD tractor climbs on. Lead boots have stalled. Machines are chasing oil, expect up, then down again. Metals no bueno. Miners are terrible. EM trying but tied to DXY. Yields sliding a little again. Stocks to the moon! I still think we’re headed into a combined US/China slowdown. I do

The post Australian dollar the new Forrest Gump currency appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 10:00 Source

If you think curiosity without rigor is bad, you should see rigor without curiosity.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 09:41 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 09:30 Source

The Department of Redundancy Department is Albo’s core portfolio. From The Australian. Business leaders will push for ­holistic tax reform, cuts to red tape and faster approvals for major projects as Anthony Albanese lays the groundwork for a second-term economic agenda by holding a productivity roundtable in Canberra months after his thumping election victory. With

The post Unproductive summit to fix no productivity appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 09:30 Source

While there’s a lot of similarities in how Australians vote between the House and the Senate, they’ve never voted exactly the same. For a start, there are more options on the Senate ballot paper than the House ballot paper. Small parties will not run in all House seats (sometimes they run in very few) and thus can only attract Senate votes in many seats. This means the bigger parties have traditionally done better in the House, where they have less competition.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 09:26 Source

I bought myself a new dictation rig, like actual physical hardware, this week. The Plaud Note Pin.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Another light news session overnight as speculation mounts of potential trade deals and tariff pullbacks with US-China talks progressing. Wall Street took any positive news as good news and was bid strongly while European shares pulled back on some not so good unemployment data and increased concerns over defence spending. Currency markets are in a

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Last week’s Q1 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Australia’s economy remains on life support, driven by historically high population growth and public spending. Australia’s aggregate GDP grew by only 0.2% in Q1 2025, less than half the 0.45% growth tipped by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in

The post Has the Australian economy just cracked? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 05:46 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 04:57 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 11, 2025 - 00:05 Source

On Monday, I reported how the Q1 national accounts, released last week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), showed that Australia’s manufacturing sector shrank to a record low 5.1% share of GDP: As you can see, Australia’s manufacturing sector has collapsed over the past 45 years, from around 14% of GDP in the mid-1970s.

The post Australia’s deindustrialisation is nearly complete appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 22:33 Source

We bought an electric car; not a swasticar, but a Hyundai Kona. We have had it for three months and up until today had only driven it about 1500 km. On Friday we drove to Sydney to see family, and never having driven more than about 20 km in one hit, a drive of some 350 kms was taken on with some nervousness. This was not due to what has been termed ‘range anxiety’ as we knew there were charging stations along the way, one group of which was at Pheasants Nest, where we used to stop for lunch and a coffee when travelling with the eleven-year-old Mazda we used to own.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 20:26 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 16:35 Source

Asian share markets are having a mixed session across the region given the poor lead from Wall Street overnight with no news about trade deals between the US and China (or Japan, or anywhere else – too much going on in LA? ) Currency markets are pushing back against recent USD strength as most undollars

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 15:22 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 15:05 Source

Dexus rooftop solar factory

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 14:25 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 14:12 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 14:07 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Victoria’s budget finances are in disarray, with the state carrying the nation’s highest debt and lowest credit rating. According to the latest state budget, Victoria’s net debt will rise to $194 billion by 2028-29, from $155.5 billion currently. Victorian net debt per capita is the highest in the nation. In 2023-24, Victoria’s per capita net

The post Victorian government taxes economy into oblivion appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Peter Hartcher is freaking out. SMH. Trump gave himself the scope to deploy the militia and/or the military “where protests against these [federal] functions are occurring or are likely to occur”. Likely to occur? He once claimed to be a very stable genius, but now, apparently, he is also clairvoyant. In addition, says his order,

The post Rodney King 2.0 or a US coup? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 13:00 Source

The machines are running out of volatility to bid. The Market Ear. Biggest volatility crash in history* “The 63% decline in the VIX over the last 9 weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history.” (Bilello) The spring 2020 post-COVID crash was the largest one prior to this (at 58%).*note that we are talking about a

The post Stocks re-enter the old world order appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Chinese deflation marches on. In May 2025 , the national consumer price index fell by 0.1% year-on-year . Among them, urban prices remained unchanged, and rural prices fell by 0.4 % ; food prices fell by 0.4%, and non-food prices remained unchanged; consumer goods prices fell by 0.5% , and service prices rose by 0.5% . ­­ — On average in May , the national consumer price index fell by 0.1% compared with the

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 12:00 Source

The ferrous complex is nothing flash, that’s for sure. But tariffs are yet to show much in its steel exports. These are absorbing an extra 100mt of iron ore from the COVID lows. Iron ore imports are lacklustre but not collapsing. I expect more downside ahead as construction continues to shrink, but unless Beijing acts

The post China spews steel everywhere appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA), which came into force in 2005, was a terrible deal for Australia that benefited the US at our expense. The Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University (ANU) investigated AUSFTA and found that, a decade after its signing, the deal had diverted more trade than

The post Australia must not cede to Trump on trade appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 11:00 Source

Melbourne’s population was about 3.5 million people at the turn of the century. It took 165 years for Melbourne to grow to this size in the year 2000. Fast forward to 2025, and Melbourne’s population is nearing 5.5 million. That’s almost a 2 million population increase in less than a quarter of a century. Liveability

The post The deliberate destruction of Melbourne appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 10:37 Source

Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf (NWS) gas project Western Australia

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 10:30 Source

Falling living standards is what he promised, and he’s not going to spend his political capital on anything else! AFR. Anthony Albanese is hosing down expectations his government is about to embark on a bold new agenda just because it has a commanding majority, saying it must first deliver on what it has already promised

The post Albo to deliver his promise of falling living standards appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 10, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Last week’s Q1 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that real per capita GDP fell by 0.2%. This represented the ninth decline in per capita GDP in eleven quarters. The following chart plots the current decline in real per capita GDP against prior episodes dating back to the beginning of

The post Australians are being boiled slowly in recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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