In surprise to no one, the Trump regime has wavered first as it signals “very nice” but probably non-existent trade talks with China and nullifies suggestions that Fed Chair Powell’s head is on the chopping block. This has seen extended rallies across stocks while the USD has firmed against most undollars although the Australian dollar
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The Dutton-led Coalition is staring down a massive election defeat, with the latest polling from Roy Morgan showing Labor’s two-party preferred vote widening to 55.5% (up 1%) against the Coalition’s 44.5%. The following chart plots recent polling from various sources and shows Labor’s lead widening as the election date approaches. Primary support for Labor also
They say that the fish rots from the head and never was a truer word spoken about the festering Australian Financial Review. Its rotten fishhead, Michael Stutchbury, today bewails the lies of politics by, you guessed it, lying. As Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy says, it was Liberal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg who agreed to pump up overall
The Trump Administration is the best thing that has happened to the incumbent Liberal government of Canada. Polling conducted in early January suggested that the Liberal Party could win as few as 21 seats in the 338-seat parliament at this year’s election. Canadians had endured a decade-long decline in their living standards. Per capita GDP
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In June 2024, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver posted the following chart showing that Australia’s housing shortage was about to surpass 200,000 dwellings: Oliver explained via Twitter (X) that “underlying demographic demand (driven by strong population growth) continues to run well ahead of new housing supply (constrained by capacity and cost issues, etc.), and is
Time for more yawnzooka as Chinese property falls into a tariff hole. Yawnulus fading. Sales too. Inventory still drawing. As completions keep falling. Not much good here. More yawnulus incoming. And it had better hurry. Morgan Stanley. Our Asia Research team’s latest AlphaWise survey of ~2,000 consumers in China (conducted April 8-11, immediately after the
It is the unsinkable metal ore despite falling steel prices. Recent GDP data was OK but what’s coming isn’t. Goldman. Despite a sequential deceleration from last Q4, year-over-year real GDP growth came in at 5.4% in Q1, higher than consensus expectations. With exports jumping 12.4% yoy, industrial production climbing 7.7% yoy, and retail sales rising
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Aussie retail sales have been structurally weak, falling in per capita terms over the past two years. Discretionary ‘brick-and-mortar’ retailers have suffered the most, losing market share to online giants such as Amazon, Temu, and Shein. Amazon joined the Australian market in December 2017 and has quickly expanded its presence. Amazon Prime offers competitive pricing
