JKM LNG futures are still signalling gasmageddon for Australia later this year. Adjusted for an AUD at 70 cents, plus regasification costs, imported LNG will still be coming in at about $19Gj versus $12Gj today. The gas cartel will respond to LNG imports by restricting supply so that global prices become the marginal price setter.
The ferrous complex is still struggling. Forgive some of the delayed pricing on the chart. SGX is sitting around $96. The latest CISA output data looks more like 2022 than 2024. Though I have to caution that this series has broken down versus official output somewhat this year. The challenges remain. Goldman. The Chinese government’s
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The first term of the Albanese government saw net overseas migration to Australia surge to a record high. It also saw temporary visa numbers balloon nearly 500,000 higher than the pre-pandemic peak: Total international student enrolments also hit a record high of nearly 1.1 million at the end of 2024, nearly 250,000 higher than the
From Goldman: From a macro perspective, we leave our forecasts for Australia unchanged given the outcome was not a surprise and the ALP’spost-Budget policy announcements have been fairly modest (0.0-0.1% of GDP). We note most of the policies announced in the Budget on 25 March, including income tax cuts for households, have already been legislated.
The following graphic from CoreLogic shows Australia’s housing affordability was the worst on record at the end of 2024. In particular, the dwelling value to income ratio was a record high 8.0 as of 31 December 2024, and the percentage of income required to service a median new mortgage was a record high 50.5%. A
NAB chief economist Sally Auld has predicted heavy interest rate cuts this year, beginning with a 0.50% cut at the 20 May meeting. “We expect the RBA to cut by 50bps in May, followed by 25bps in July, August, November and February”, Auld wrote in her May update. “With the current setting of monetary policy
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The Market Ear on the rally nobody wanted. Now what? SPX is hitting some sort of short term trend line here. We moved above the 50 day, but are still slightly below the 200 day. The death cross is still in place, but as we pointed out a few weeks ago, last time we got
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Eighty-nine. That’s the magic number. It will take at least 89 cardinals to elect Pope Francis’ successor. [The author has returned to UCA News after a year away].
That’s the two-thirds supermajority of the 133 men who will enter the Sistine Chapel on 7 May for the largest conclave in history. It would have been even larger had two other cardinal-electors not been too ill to participate.
Westpac published the following chart showing that the average minimum mortgage repayment has surged since 2022. “Over the two years to January 2024, the average minimum repayment increased by 42.2%, or about $754, while average incomes grew just 8.5% (or $641)”, Westpac noted. CBA also published the following chart showing that average loan repayments have
DXY is struggling mightily to get anywhere. AUD follows EUR. Lead boots plod on. Got to be quick to grab gold these days. Oil in all sorts. Metals no bueno for growth. Big miners perfect down channel. Life for EM? Not if credit has its way. Fed cuts are disappearing. Stocks no likee. AUD is
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At the time of writing on Monday evening, there appear to be 17 close seats worth following over the next few days.
By my reckoning there are three types of seats worth watching:
The federal election result carries some hard-won lessons. The overarching lesson for the Liberals is to accept that they’re just not very good at politics.
A fundamental failure: They’ve been suffering a shrinking share of women’s votes since 1996. But the evidence shows they prefer to keep the boys’ club intact even if it pushes them into extinction.
