This is how catastrophic the East Coast gas cartel will become if left to its own devices. Competition cop Gina Cass-Gottlieb has picked a fight with Australia’s top energy companies over data she says shows they are planning to increasingly use gas produced for domestic purposes to meet commitments to foreign buyers. Queensland’s three major
Victoria has been a stronghold for the Labor Party in recent federal and state elections. In the 2022 federal election, Labor won 24 of 39 Victorian seats and 54.83% of the two-party preferred vote. However, in the forthcoming election, Victoria will become a serious problem for the Albanese government. Poll Bludger shows a 5.4% swing
It had to happen. Amid so much uncertainty around China, what was iron ore doing near $110? There is a little better news over the weekend but hardly game-changing. The Chinese manufacturing PMI flopped into expansion. The services PMI remains very weak. Though construction bounced, in rather unconvincing fashion. There is the NPC this week,
The post Iron ore jaws snap shut appeared first on MacroBusiness.
The scale of Labor’s victory in 2021 makes it hard to know what seats are likely to be the most interesting seats at the 2025 Western Australian election, or the shape of the likely result.
Recent polling points to a Labor two-party-preferred vote of 55-56% – five polls conducted between July 2024 and February 2025 all gave a result in that range.
Conveniently, that is pretty much exactly the Labor 2PP achieved at the 2017 state election. Labor polled 55.5% that year, and then gained a swing of 14.1% for a result of 69.6% in 2021.
Australians have experienced the longest recession in modern history, with real per capita GDP falling for seven consecutive quarters as of Q3 2024. This reduction in per capita GDP has been driven by the household sector, where spending fell in six of the last seven quarters. The latest quarterly retail sales data from the ABS
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
Peter Hartcher did a great job of summing up cowardly Albo on the weekend. …as the People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted “what can only be interpreted as an act of intimidation”, in the words of sinologist Anne-Marie Brady of New Zealand’s University of Canterbury, Albanese tried to minimise it. He tried so hard he tripped
Let us begin with AEP in full flight. Telegraph. Donald Trump’s assault on the US federal government and the world’s interlinked manufacturing system have together reached an economic tipping point. “It seems almost unavoidable that we are headed for a deep, deep recession,” said Jesse Rothstein, Berkeley professor and former chief economist at the US
A very busy end of month session on Friday night saw a drop in US consumer spending but Wall Street played the short covering game while Chinese volatility spiked earlier in the session, causing European shares to make no advances. The USD is coming back against the undollars with new daily lows in Euro due
The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Donald Trump might be a speed hump on the road to net zero, but the business and climate case for renewables leaves Australia in the box seat to capitalise.
The start of a second Trump presidency has led many to question the future outlook for energy in Australia and around the world, and what impact the new US administration will have on the move towards net zero.
"Another devastating world war, potentially bringing China and the United States into direct conflict. The spread and even the use of nuclear weapons. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza failing to ultimately produce favourable outcomes for Kyiv and Israeli-Palestinian peace. A more multipolar world without robust multilateral institutions. A democratic recession further devolving into a democratic depression."
Goldman on the currency fantasy. We remain skeptical of a centrally-planned currency accord, but open to the possibility that shifting government policies around the globe could bring about the right conditions to weaken the Dollar. The market and macro set-up heading into either the Plaza Accord or the Smithsonian Agreement was very different than it