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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 11:01 Source

More questions over ABS numberwang today as the monthly DEEWR job ads series falls -1.7% on the month and is going absolutely nowhere: It’s a luke warm labour market and the ABS needs to advertise for some labour market statisticians that have a clue. Full report.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 11:01 Source

More questions over ABS numberwang today as the monthly DEEWR job ads series falls -1.7% on the month and is going absolutely nowhere: It’s a luke warm labour market and the ABS needs to advertise for some labour market statisticians that have a clue. Full report.

The post DEEWR job ads going absolutely nowhere appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Delimiter Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 11:00 Source

As you may recall, Delimiter was planning to hold a webinar this morning on transitioning to Office 365. This is just a quick email to let you know that, due to events beyond our control, the webinar has been postponed for a couple of weeks. It's unfortunate -- I was looking forward to it, and we have some great content.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 10:55 Source

From Society Generale: Brexit at a probability of 45%, remains our highest probability risk. At this time, a date has yet to be set for the referendum but 3Q16 seems a likely timing, based on the idea that Prime Minister Cameron will want to hold the referendum within a reasonable timeframe on concluding an agreement

The post Soc Gen’s five black swans for 2016 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Delimiter Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 10:39 Source

Federal MPs and senators will learn about coding and novel uses of technology at an innovation 'boot camp' today in Parliament House organised by tech giant Intel, along with students from five Canberra schools.

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Delimiter Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 10:36 Source

The ACS, the professional body for Australia's ICT industry, has announced that Anthony Wong has been elected as its President for a two year term commencing 1 January.

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Delimiter Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 10:24 Source

IT services group Empired has just clinched a deal to manage the ICT infrastructure of electricity provider Horizon Power – a state government-owned company providing electricity to Western Australia.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 10:13 Source

By Leith van Onselen The release on Friday of the State Accounts, along with other recent data releases from the ABS, have well and truly shattered the WA Government’s Budget projections, which were built on delusions of grandeur. The key assumptions underpinning the 2015-16 Budget are illustrated below, with the iron ore forecasts highlighted in

The post WA’s Budget assumptions are already destroyed appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 09:58 Source

The Aussie is ripping again today, even as commodities threaten the third level of Hell (on their way to the seventh): It’s powering against the US dollar, launching against the euro and well outdoing the other commodity currencies. I could go into the five drivers again but there isn’t much need. This is largely a technical

The post What’s blasted off the Australian dollar? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 09:54 Source

 by Chris Becker A Turkey shoot overnight translated to a wobbly session in European stocks while oil spiked alongside other commodities as US dollar strength. Yesterday’s data dump began with a firming Japan manufacturing PMI that put a bid underneath Yen, while in the US consumer confidence slumped even as house prices registered solid gains in the face

The post Macro Morning (Turkey shoot) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 09:43 Source

Captain Glenn spoke last night and here it is. The Long Run Glenn Stevens* Governor Address to the Australian Business Economists (ABE) Annual Dinner Sydney – 24 November 2015 Thank you for the opportunity to address you this evening. You’ve spent all afternoon talking about the near-term outlook. No doubt there was a lively discussion

The post Capt’ Glenn covers his butt appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 09:35 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Turnbull Government has released its response to the Competition Policy Review (‘the Harper Review’), accepting in full or in principle 39 of the 56 recommendations and partly accepting a further five, while pushing the controversial recommendations to change the law on companies abusing their market power and on liberalising pharmacy

The post Hits and misses in competition policy response appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 09:24 Source

Blow me down with a feather, from Macquarie: Credit ratings at risk BHP and RIO have both stated a wish to maintain a solid A rated balance sheet. A detailed analysis of the credit rating methodologies suggest that the solid A credit ratings for both companies are at risk, with BHP’s A+ rating almost certain

The post Macquarie: BHP/RIO dividends, ratings stuffed appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 09:14 Source

From Credit Suisse: New economy leading the labour market. ABS data suggest that the bulk of job creation has occurred in “new-economy” sectors such as healthcare and professional, scientific and technical services. Indeed, these sectors account for roughly 80% of the 232K jobs created in 2015 to date. In contrast, “old-economy” sectors, such as mining,

The post CS: ABS numberwang messing with RBA’s head appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 09:05 Source

What’s causing iron ore to fall and where will it bottom asks Dumbfax today: 1. US RATE RISES 2. CHINESE GROWTH 3. CHINESE ECONOMIC CYCLE 4. ROY HILL ANY POSSIBLE BULLISH INFLUENCES? 1. BHP’S SAMARCO DISASTER 2. CLOSING OF SMALL PRODUCERS 3. UNEXPECTEDLY GOOD GLOBAL GROWTH And the truth: US rate rises and a rising US dollar are

The post When will iron ore bottom? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 09:05 Source

A week before the world looks to repair the disastrous outcome of Copenhagen with a global deal in Paris, the Murdoch camp closes Climate Spectator.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 07:47 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Grattan Institute has delivered another excellent report entitled Super tax targeting, which argues that the Budget could save a combined $6.6 billion a year by better targeting superannuation contributions (saving $3.9 billion a year), along with implementing a 15% tax on the earnings of retirees (saving $2.7 billion a year).

The post Grattan delivers blueprint for fair super reform appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 07:03 Source

The Turnbull Budget is under assault. Yesterday we had Treasury’s Nigel Ray on growth potential: There was criticism of the Budget that the projections for real GDP growth over the medium term were too high. Some have suggested these projections were raised in order to improve the Budget position. Can I say at the outset

The post Turnbull needs to slap Treasury upside the head appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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George Monbiot Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 06:58 Source

The belief that economic growth can be detached from destruction appears to be based on a simple accounting mistake.

By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 25th November 2015

We can have it all; that is the promise of our age. We can own every gadget we are capable of imagining – and quite a few that we are not. We can live like monarchs without compromising the Earth’s capacity to sustain us. The promise that makes all this possible is that as economies develop, they become more efficient in their use of resources. In other words, they decouple.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 06:27 Source

Is there anything Netflix can"t (or won"t) do? I"m both a little excited and bemused at news the maximum streamer is to remake Lost in Space, one of my favourite childhood memories.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 06:20 Source

Wednesday 25 November 1 The PM warns further Islamic State-linked attacks are ‘likely’, but the terror group has ‘more smartphones than guns’. In contrast with his hawkish predecessor, Malcolm Turnbull urges a calm, careful response to the Paris attacks. Isn’t that refreshing? In fact he is treating it as a policy issue rather than a…

The post ”Day to Day in Politics” with John Lord appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 01:28 Source

By Leith van Onselen Among all of the factors that drive house price growth, arguably the most important is the flow of housing finance commitments, which has shown an incredibly strong correlation over the past several decades (see next chart). On Friday, the ABS released its State Accounts for the year ended June 2015, which

The post The fuel driving the Syd/Melb housing bubbles appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 01:15 Source

From Goldman: In many ways our 2016 forecast is “déjà vu all over again.” The US stock market has mostly traded sideways during 2015 with the index hovering in a narrow  band except for a brief late summer correction. Return dispersion across the market and within sectors has been low. Market breadth is currently at

The post Goldman: 2016 to suck for stocks appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 01:06 Source

From AEP: Known to traders as Dr Copper, the metal is tracked as a barometer of health for the world economy but has increasingly become a rogue indicator. China consumes 45pc of the world’s supply, distorting the picture. Beijing is deliberately winding down its “old economy” of heavy industry and break-neck construction, switching to a

The post Memo to a commodities confused Mr Evans-Pritchard appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 01:06 Source

It’s a billion dollar question and Liberum Capital has a nice interactive to help answer it. Here’s the credit metrics at today’s spot prices: And on MB price assumptions for next year: And with various emergency deleveraging measures: The answer, then, is the credit downgrade cycle begins next year, at least according to Liberum and

The post When will Glencore go bust? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 01:05 Source

The Brent oil price took off last night as Turkey shot down a Russian fighter, from the FT: Vladimir Putin has accused the Turkish government of providing financial and military support to Isis, in a furious response to the downing of a Russian fighter jet near the Syria-Turkey border. Turkey said it shot down the

The post Daily LNG price update (contract smash) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 01:05 Source

Here are the iron ore charts for November 24, 2015:    Spot smashed with Tianjin benchmark down 1.8% to a ten year low of $43.40. Paper mixed with Dalian rebounding overnight. Rebar is being hammered out of existence. I do not trust the Dalian rebound. With the January and May contracts in flux it is not clear

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 01:02 Source

From Alliance Bernstein We recently started to track employment data and trends through three publicly traded on-line platforms: 51job.com, Zhaopin.com and 58.com. The first two platforms combined have ~200M registered users. Even assuming all 91 million users on 51jobs.com are also registered on Zhaopin.com, the available sample of over 100 million urban workers is a

The post How high is Chinese unemployment? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, November 25, 2015 - 01:01 Source

Macro, Markets & Investing Harmless commodity crash accelerates as dollar soars – Telegraph, AEP Changing the financial order in Asia-Pacific – Nikkei Asian Review Steel stumbles to near record low as China demand cools – SCMP Hedge funds turn very bearish on U.S. crude – Reuters, John Kemp How the ‘great divorce’ between China and

The post Links 25 November, 2015 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Tuesday, November 24, 2015 - 23:03 Source

Judging from the latest polls one would assume that Bill Shorten’s head is what Labor voters want first and foremost. But moments before this disastrous poll was splashed liberally on the front pages of most media sites, Labor voters had been talking about something equally as important as leadership woes: national issues. A few months…

The post What do Labor voters want? appeared first on The AIM Network.

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