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Victorian state redistribution – margin estimates

July 21, 2021 - 09:30 -- Admin

I will firstly acknowledge that I am very late in publishing these figures. I’ve just finished moving house during the first two weeks of lockdown and it has pushed back my timelines.

Anyway, this post contains my estimates of the two-candidate-preferred margins, the primary vote for the main parties, and my estimate of the figures for the Legislative Council regions. In particular the Labor vote has changed significantly in the renamed North-Eastern Metropolitan region.

Antony Green has also published his estimated margins here. In most cases they are very similar, but I always like to have my own estimates, which I need in order to publish sub-electorate level voting figures for my election guides.

I’ve already summarised the changes here.

The seats of Bass and Bayswater have flipped from Labor to Liberal. Hastings, Ripon and Prahran have flipped to Labor. Meanwhile one Liberal seat and two Labor seats have been abolished, and replaced by three Labor seats. This means Labor has gone from 55 seats at the 2018 election to 57 notional seats.

I should particularly draw attention to Prahran. On the primary vote, the Greens have dropped into third place. If those numbers stayed the same, the seat would revert to a Labor vs Liberal contest. But of course that could well change, and the Greens are still well within reach of winning. The Liberal position has become a lot weaker against either Labor or the Greens. If the Liberal Party falls into third place then this margin becomes irrelevant, but I think the Labor vs Liberal margin is similar to the Labor vs Greens margin.

There are a number of other seats where the two-candidate-preferred count was a bit complicated. Voters from Prahran, which was Greens vs Liberal, have been shifted to Albert Park, Caulfield and Malvern, and I have treated the Greens votes as Labor votes in those seats.

In the seats of Mildura and Geelong, where an independent made the final count in 2018, I have ignored the small number of votes moved from neighbouring seats.

In Broadmeadows, Pascoe Vale and South Barwon, I have calculated a Labor vs Liberal count and have distributed Independent preferences between Labor and Liberal in the same proportion as was the difference between the 2PP and 2CP in 2018.

The last thing to note is the Legislative Council. The Eastern Metropolitan region has been renamed as North-Eastern Metropolitan region, with two seats being added from the Northern Metropolitan region.

The Labor vote in that region has increased from 33.6% to 38.8%. Two quotes is 33.3%, so this means Labor would now have a decent surplus that will influence who wins the fifth seat. The Greens vote also increased from 6.7% to 8.5%, with most of that coming from the others vote, which has dropped dramatically.

Labor’s vote has dropped slightly in the northern suburbs, with the Greens solidifying their vote further from 16.7% to 18.4%. That will make their seat extra safe but the Greens are far from winning a second.

The shifting of Footscray from the West to the North hurts the Greens in Western Metro, with their vote dropping from 8.7% to 8.1%. That will certainly hurt their efforts to win back the seat they held from 2006 to 2018.

Two-candidate-preferred margins

Seat
Old margin
New margin

Albert Park
ALP 13.1%
ALP 9.2%

Ashwood (Burwood)
ALP 3.3%
ALP 2.3%

Bass
ALP 2.4%
LIB 2.3%

Bayswater
ALP 0.4%
LIB 1.0%

Bellarine
ALP 11.5%
ALP 11.4%

Benambra
LIB 2.4%
LIB 9.4%

Bendigo East
ALP 12.1%
ALP 12.1%

Bendigo West
ALP 18.6%
ALP 18.6%

Bentleigh
ALP 11.9%
ALP 11.3%

Berwick (Gembrook)
LIB 0.8%
LIB 2.1%

Box Hill
ALP 2.1%
ALP 2.9%

Brighton
LIB 1.1%
LIB 0.5%

Broadmeadows
ALP 30.3%
ALP 24.3%

Brunswick
GRN vs ALP 0.6%
GRN vs ALP 2.0%

Bulleen
LIB 5.8%
LIB 5.7%

Bundoora
ALP 17.4%
ALP 17.6%

Buninyong
ALP 12.2%
ALP 7.2%

Carrum
ALP 11.9%
ALP 12.2%

Caulfield
LIB 0.3%
LIB 0.6%

Clarinda
ALP 17.4%
ALP 14.9%

Cranbourne
ALP 11%
ALP 9.1%

Croydon
LIB 2.1%
LIB 0.9%

Dandenong
ALP 23.9%
ALP 23.5%

Eildon
LIB 2.4%
LIB 0.6%

Eltham
ALP 9.1%
ALP 8.3%

Essendon
ALP 15.9%
ALP 15.8%

Eureka (Wendouree)
ALP 10.3%
ALP 13.0%

Euroa
NAT 15.4%
NAT 16.0%

Evelyn
LIB 2.6%
LIB 1.6%

Ferntree Gully
LIB 1.6%
Abolished seat

Footscray
ALP 28.1%
ALP 29.1%

Frankston
ALP 9.7%
ALP 10.1%

Geelong
ALP vs IND 6.2%
ALP vs IND 6.1%

Gippsland East
NAT 17.6%
NAT 17.6%

Gippsland South
NAT 15.3%
NAT 13.9%

Glen Waverley (Forest Hill)
LIB 1.2%
LIB 1.5%

Greenvale
New seat
ALP 22.6%

Hastings
LIB 1.1%
ALP 0.4%

Hawthorn
ALP 0.4%
ALP 0.4%

Ivanhoe
ALP 12.4%
ALP 12.7%

Kalkallo (Yuroke)
ALP 20.3%
ALP 20.0%

Kew
LIB 4.8%
LIB 4.9%

Keysborough
ALP 14.9%
Abolished seat

Kororoit
ALP 25.6%
ALP 24.9%

Lara
ALP 19.1%
ALP 19.1%

Laverton
New seat
ALP 23.4%

Lowan
NAT 23.5%
NAT 20.9%

Macedon
ALP 13.2%
ALP 13.2%

Malvern
LIB 6.1%
LIB 6.6%

Melbourne
GRN vs ALP 1.3%
GRN vs ALP 1.7%

Melton
ALP 4.3%
ALP 5.0%

Mildura
IND vs NAT 0.3%
IND vs NAT 0.3%

Monbulk
ALP 8.6%
ALP 9.0%

Morang (Mill Park)
ALP 24.9%
ALP 25.0%

Mordialloc
ALP 12.9%
ALP 13.5%

Mornington
LIB 5.0%
LIB 5.0%

Morwell
IND vs ALP 1.8%
IND vs ALP 1.7%

Mount Waverley
ALP 1.8%
Abolished seat

Mulgrave
ALP 12.7%
ALP 16.2%

Murray Plains
NAT 23.9%
NAT 24%

Narracan
LIB 7.3%
LIB 6.7%

Narre Warren North
ALP 9.8%
ALP 10.2%

Narre Warren South
ALP 6.9%
ALP 10.7%

Nepean
ALP 0.9%
ALP 0.6%

Niddrie
ALP 12.6%
ALP 12.7%

Northcote
ALP vs GRN 1.7%
ALP vs GRN 1.7%

Oakleigh
ALP 15.8%
ALP 16.1%

Ovens Valley
NAT 12.6%
NAT 12%

Pakenham
New seat
ALP 2.0%

Pascoe Vale
ALP 8.3%
ALP 15.6%

Point Cook (Altona)
ALP 14.6%
ALP 12.3%

Polwarth
LIB 5.4%
LIB 2.3%

Prahran
GRN vs LIB 7.5%
ALP 13.4%

Preston
ALP vs GRN 20.7%
ALP vs GRN 20.7%

Richmond
ALP vs GRN 5.5%
ALP vs GRN 5.8%

Ringwood
ALP 2.8%
ALP 3.7%

Ripon
LIB 0.02%
ALP 3.0%

Rowville
LIB 5.7%
LIB 4.9%

Sandringham
LIB 0.6%
LIB 0.4%

Shepparton
IND vs LIB 5.3%
IND vs LIB 5.3%

South Barwon
ALP 4.6%
ALP 4.1%

South-West Coast
LIB 2.3%
LIB 3.3%

St Albans
ALP 21.5%
ALP 22.4%

Sunbury
ALP 14.3%
ALP 14.6%

Sydenham
ALP 17.9%
ALP 17.9%

Tarneit
ALP 18%
ALP 17.9%

Thomastown
ALP 27.2%
ALP 27.4%

Warrandyte
LIB 3.9%
LIB 3.9%

Werribee
ALP 12.6%
ALP 13.6%

Williamstown
ALP 22.1%
ALP 18.7%

Yan Yean
ALP 17.0%
ALP 16.5%

Primary votes for main parties

Seat
ALP prim
LIB prim
NAT prim
GRN prim

Albert Park
40.4
34.8

16.7

Ashwood (Burwood)
40.8
44.3

11.7

Bass
36.3
45.4

5.6

Bayswater
40.5
48.0

8.6

Bellarine
49.7
35.6

9.1

Benambra
17.7
40.1

3.5

Bendigo East
50.3
20.9
15.9
8.0

Bendigo West
53.5
27.1

13.1

Bentleigh
49.4
33.6

8.2

Berwick (Gembrook)
41.2
48.5

7.1

Box Hill
40.5
44.3

13.6

Brighton
32.4
44.8

14.9

Broadmeadows
56.4
15.1

7.9

Brunswick
38.6
7.8

42.7

Bulleen
36.4
52.0

11.1

Bundoora
56.7
28.4

7.4

Buninyong
44.4
33.9

7.4

Carrum
53.0
32.5

5.5

Caulfield
33.7
46.6

14.6

Clarinda
54.8
27.5

7.1

Cranbourne
48.7
34.3

4.0

Croydon
39.4
46.6

8.9

Dandenong
64.5
22.5

7.0

Eildon
37.0
46.5

11.0

Eltham
49.9
37.7

10.4

Essendon
46.2
27.5

16.8

Eureka (Wendouree)
50.1
31.5

10.8

Euroa
28.0

59.5
5.2

Evelyn
40.7
48.1

10.0

Footscray
54.4
17.3

20.1

Frankston
46.3
32.6

7.6

Geelong
40.9
20.3

9.2

Gippsland East
21.7

56.7
6.2

Gippsland South
29.2
3.7
56.5
9.6

Glen Waverley (Forest Hill)
41.5
48.8

8.4

Greenvale
60.0
24.2

7.0

Hastings
38.5
44.8

10.3

Hawthorn
32.8
44.0

17.7

Ivanhoe
46.5
32.0

15.0

Kalkallo (Yuroke)
59.2
25.3

5.9

Kew
31.3
49.4

15.2

Kororoit
63.0
21.1

8.3

Lara
57.9
24.1

7.5

Laverton
57.5
20.9

12.1

Lowan
21.9
6.0
58.0
5.3

Macedon
48.0
32.0

9.8

Malvern
29.4
51.6

12.9

Melbourne
35.2
17.4

38.8

Melton
34.0
16.2

4.5

Mildura
17.4
2.9
37.5
3.8

Monbulk
42.3
36.9

16.6

Morang (Mill Park)
62.2
21.0

5.4

Mordialloc
50.9
31.0

7.5

Mornington
34.3
50.6

9.8

Morwell
34.2
12.3
10.7
3.6

Mulgrave
59.2
28.4

6.5

Murray Plains
19.4

60.3
4.2

Narracan
35.7
51.1

6.1

Narre Warren North
50.9
35.7

6.2

Narre Warren South
52.1
33.2

5.8

Nepean
37.9
44.2

11.0

Niddrie
55.1
34.0

6.9

Northcote
41.7
10.7

39.5

Oakleigh
53.3
29.7

11.3

Ovens Valley
20.8
1.9
42.1
4.8

Pakenham
44.1
43.5

7.9

Pascoe Vale
38.2
11.5

20.7

Point Cook (Altona)
49.7
24.2

7.9

Polwarth
31.5
45.9

10.5

Prahran
33.8
28.8

28.2

Preston
52.0
16.3

15.1

Richmond
44.2

33.6

Ringwood
42.5
43.6

13.4

Ripon
42.1
37.3

4.7

Rowville
36.1
50.4

9.7

Sandringham
33.3
42.5

8.1

Shepparton
11.6
26.6
13.0
2.4

South Barwon
39.2
38.5

8.4

South-West Coast
24.5
34.4

6.2

St Albans
61.3
23.6

11.0

Sunbury
58.6
33.6

7.7

Sydenham
61.0
28.5

6.4

Tarneit
56.7
25.9

7.7

Thomastown
62.0
15.3

4.3

Warrandyte
35.8
50.0

10.5

Werribee
45.9
16.7

6.5

Williamstown
50.1
20.3

13.2

Yan Yean
55.3
26.5
1.4
5.6

Legislative Council vote by region

ALP
LNP
GRN
Others

Region
Old
New
Old
New
Old
New
Old
New

Eastern Victoria
37.0
33.5
36.1
33.9
9.0
6.9
17.9
25.7

North-Eastern Metropolitan
33.6
38.8
34.1
33.7
6.7
8.5
25.6
19.0

Northern Metropolitan
42.6
41.5
16.5
16.4
16.7
18.4
24.2
23.7

Northern Victoria
31.8
31.3
31.2
31.6
6.6
6.6
30.4
30.5

South-Eastern Metropolitan
49.9
49.0
29.0
29.6
5.6
5.5
15.5
15.9

Southern Metropolitan
34.6
35.1
38.3
38.0
13.5
13.1
13.6
13.8

Western Metropolitan
46.2
46.9
21.3
20.8
8.7
8.1
23.8
24.2

Western Victoria
38.2
38.2
29.9
29.8
7.5
7.5
24.4
24.5